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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (3378)	6/5/2002 3:40:53 AM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Raymond. Here is May 02 article on dram capacity. e-insite.net It's in 200mm (8 inch) wafer equivalent capacity. It shows capacity at about 1 million wafers start per month. The very nature of fabs (esp new fabs) is they must be run near full capacity. From die size the number of chips produced can be calculated. Using 300mm upgrades, a lot more 2nd hand capacity is going to be released to other parts of the semiconductor industry. ICKnowledge, for example, are not like those corrupt firms you mention imho. They just sell software where you can do all these type of calculations yourself to a high degree of accuracy. It's my belief that some very simple calculations show an overcapacity situation. I conclude from such numbers we will have overcapacity and a crunch is due on the semis. That is a good number of wafer fabs will have to be shut down and go out of business. This is not a good scenario for the semi equipment industry. What are the alternatives? Slow down 300mm migrations? Yeah OK, and the implication for the semi equips is.... People who believe that only the smallest wafar fabs will die are the naive ones. It is not economical to migrate thousands of technology variants and thousands upon thousands of chip designs to a couple of super efficient foundries in SEA. Even single transistors and diodes are still sold by the ton. No... at the end of the crunch there will be some well managed survivors with a variety of wafer fabs producing wafers from about 100mm up to 300mm wafers. 300mm foundry produced single chip solutions will work in some applications. The wipe out will occur across all wafer sizes imho....including 300mm. The good news is well should be able to buy some memory and other semiconductor chips on the cheap -g- Is this good for the average world citizen?? Dunno...does he/she have enough to eat yet??? Maybe the USA debt model could be included to the whole world. Give everyone a mobile phone...a credit card, and they can just order a Domino pizza for delivery perhaps...? "yep... a large combo pizza for a family of 8 please....hold the rat pleez, yes i know there's a special on" -g-