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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nikole Wollerstein who wrote (86341)	6/4/2002 6:38:17 AM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116762

fwiw I don't recall anything pro gold from this guy when it was at $275-255-275. Stock Market Overview Cambridge Asset Management Gold Is A State Of Mind By Martin & Bart Siegel, CPA, CFP Published 06. 3. 02 at 18:24 Sierra Time Gold funds are up nearly 60 percent in 2002. Gold prices continue to climb past $320. Silver and platinum have similar price patterns. Gold hasn't seen these price levels since 1999. Some economists are attributing the runaway prices to the potential of war between nuclear powers, Middle Eastern tensions, or the global war on terrorism. There are even those who agree with J.P. Morgan when he said "Gold and only gold is real money." We at Cambridge disagree. We believe that the momentum players have identified a pattern and are creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. This happened in the internet stocks, it happened in tulips, and it can, and has, happen in precious metals. Gold historically has been a store of value. It has performed better than paper currency. Presently Federal Reserve policy is attempting to stimulate the economy. They are trying to avoid a deflationary spiral, and encourage a healthier modestly inflationary situation. Businesses are recovering, and business activity is expanding. Industrial production, and capital goods orders, are turning up. Some are trying to explain the rise in gold as a reaction to a Fed policy change: The basic money supply has stopped shrinking, and is now increasing. The Fed deflated the cash base of the economy from a 15 percent growth rate at the end of 1999, to a 5 percent decline rate at the end of 2000. Gold prices slumped from $310 to $255. Over the past 16 months, the Fed has expanded the monetary base to a 10 percent growth rate. Lawrence Kudlow, chief economist for CNBC, from whom much of this information was acquired, explains that this is the reason gold has turned up. Although we respect his opinions, we disagree with his conclusion on the reason for the increase in the price of gold. The gold value of the U.S. dollar has dropped about 25 percent over the past year. Normally this is an inflationary signal. But there is very little inflation. We believe gold is just like any other commodity. When the price goes up, supply increases to meet demand. Gold mining companies that were marginal, or even losing money, are now profitable at the new higher prices. In addition technology has contributed tremendously to the ability of companies to discover, and mine, precious metals. We at Cambridge are not trying to say that a well structure portfolio should not have precious metals. We are just saying don't jump onto this bandwagon with both feet. Stay diversified. There is nothing magic about gold. We don't know when, or even if, this trend in precious metal prices will end. We do know that prices have gone up tremendously, and have fallen, just as fast, in the past. Gold prices have been both much higher, and much lower, than they are now. Make sure you remain diversified. Cash, (cont) sierratimes.com

To: Nikole Wollerstein who wrote (86341)	6/4/2002 6:50:44 AM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116762

<<Does anybody have any support to the rumors that JPM short Gold big way?>> Most recent I can find: JPM : just p... mess by: reteppet 06/04/02 06:43 am Msg: 17543 of 17543 the big manipulations of the gold prices started in 1995. Then JPM was around 15. JPM will fall back to 15. It's that simple. Notice the strong downward trend since beginning of 2000. See you at 15. See you soon. messages.yahoo.com Re: Clock Ticking on Gold Shorts by: mikey2free 06/04/02 02:20 am Msg: 17539 of 17543 gold just broke 330- gold going up jpm going the opposite direction hmmmmmmmm Posted as a reply to: Msg 17533 by bocarat3 messages.yahoo.com J.P. Morgan Joins Ranks of Gold Bulls Thu May 30, 4:33 AM ET LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. investment bank J.P. Morgan became the latest to join the rank of gold bulls on Thursday, predicting a higher bullion price this year and next. J.P. Morgan forecast gold would average $305 an ounce in 2002, higher than its previous forecast of $290 an ounce, and $325 an ounce in 2003 rather than $310 an ounce. "We believe there is more upside opportunity in the gold price rather than downside risk in the medium term due to inevitable reduction in gold supply as mines age," its gold analyst John Bridges said. "In our gold equity research we will increasingly be including...higher gold prices into our valuations allowing more bullish investors to make realistic decisions on the upside for gold equities," Bridges said. Spot gold was at $324.60/325.10 an ounce in European trading, having risen on Wednesday to a high of $327.30, a level not seen since October, 1999. It has averaged around $297 an ounce this year, up from $271 an ounce in 2001. Gold has been fired higher mainly because of dollar weakness and tensions ranging from Kashmir (news - web sites) to the Middle East and fears of a terror attack on the United States mainland. Prospects of declining global mine production and a reduction in forward selling by leading mine firms has also fanned gold higher. These culminated in gold being set or "fixed" in London on Wednesday at its highest level in more than 4-1/2 years. Gold analysts have raised their price projection for the precious metal this year because of a bullish cocktail of strong market fundamentals and political uncertainty, a Reuters survey of analysts showed this month. A survey of 12 analysts forecast an average gold price of $306 a troy ounce, up from a forecast of $290 an ounce in a similar survey conducted last January. story.news.yahoo.com