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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mt_mike who wrote (52591)	6/4/2002 10:37:23 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

let me backtrack, MTman, Central Banks are stuck, no bail I think given the recent Barrick events, that gold bankers like JPMorgan and Citibank and GoldSachs are gonna issue oodles of margin calls to miner complicitors in the great hedge game JPM, Citi, GS might take some serious lumps but if they cut their losses now or soon, they can salvage but who knows how much can be salvaged? commercial short gold positions now exceed world central bank gold holdings this suppression manipulation of the gold market has gone on A LONG LONG LONG TIME now it is unwinding, and should unwind for several months I believe most of the entire 1990's economic boom was funded by borrowed gold as leverage the gold was sold, with proceeds TBonds were bought answer me this: in the 1990's federal deficits grew until the end of the decade we bailed out several international accidents e.g. S&L, Mexico, Russia, LTCM, Argentina, Brazil US Fed expanded money supply by 100% yet how did the prevailing interest rates decline for 10 yrs? and how did price inflation not show up in CPI? I think I have the answer, but in rough terms Fed sold gold without showing it on their books and subsidized Treasury interest rates simple yet complicated now the gold loans are due and the dollar will suffer, along with rates I expect $1-2 billion in gold desk losses combined, minimum but they will put the screws to the miners Barrick is dead meat, matter of time several miners will be getting margin calls soon, if not already I dont see the Federal Reserve announcing a gold auction not with gold rising it would cause too much of a stir, too much attention in London, Chancellor of Exchequer is soon to be tortured Eddy sold off 75% of England's gold at the low and now their dollar-based TBonds are dropping in value since the dollar is in decline this is gonna happen on widespread basis for foreign banks just read that 75% of all world bank reserves are in dollars this will lead to a worldwide banking crisis soon like this summer or later this year TBonds have replaced gold in world banks as the foundation of their supermoney depository loans this is insane if the world avoids a depression in the next few years, it will be a miracle by the time this is over, world central banks will be holding paper assets in decline and big players, major hedge funds, and smart individuals will be holding gold/silver although this sounds laughable, ironic, tragic, it has consequences politically and socially, not to mention legally I expect some unfortunate counter-measures by govt like suspension of rights and some unfortunate social effects like riots and some chaos (see Argentina for a preview) Prez Bush will not win re-election we will instead get somebody much worse Bush will be sacrificed for Clinton's errors but all is not lost for gold holders a worse (and likely Democrat president) will lead to tremendous inflation, higher interest rate, bigger deficits, more distrust in govt, and skyrocketing gold prices THE US GOVT CANNOT CONFISCATE GOLD TO DO SO, OR TO ANNOUNCE SUCH INTENTION, WOULD KILL THE DOLLAR THE BUCK WOULD OVERNIGHT DECLINE 30-40% AND LEAD TO ABSOLUTE AND TOTAL CHAOS BUY GOLD AND GOLD MINER STOCKS before the decade is over, WAR will be spreading like wildfire that is the typical response to economic disintegration check 1939, a mere 7 years after the Great Depression / jim