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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Boplicity who wrote (52636)6/4/2002 12:43:21 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
any Fed mistakes now bring deep recession
big mistakes bring depression

Greg, you are a bright guy
why do you assume that US leaders are in control???
we have exported $2000 billion in TBonds
we have a dollar masquerading in world bank systems as GOLD,
representing 75% of world reserves
they chose that in order to grab the 5-6% interest rate
but they forget about declining principal in debt issues

we have a trade debt that grows monthly now
it is above 4% of GDP now, expected to hit 5% next year
our trade debt is now our Achilles Heel
foreigners are now in a position to force higher yields in order to finance this debt
its other brother, the Fed deficit, also requires foreign bidders
we are not in control, plain & simple, sad but true

Greenspan has forfeited control
this comes from allowing the Yen Carry Trade in 1990's
and then the Gold Carry Trade until now
this is about taking presentday advantages,
while forfeiting future control
and placing colossal sums of dollars and TBonds outside the country
our Strong Dollar Policy has ceded control of American policymaking

Greenspan CANNOT CANNOT turn down the Money Supply spigot
he did so to some degree in March-April
he must increase money supply in a massive massive way
but he will earn price inflation as a result
he must somehow lead in a way that convinces national confidence that borrowing will result in future business and profits
but I think it might be too late

he must increase money supply massively
I believe he will choose to do so via S&P Futures
but I believe that will backfire

WE HAVE LOST CONTROL OF BOTH OUR CURRENCY AND TREASURIES
when will you open your eyes to this remarkably unique situation???
you seem to view the world thru primrose glasses

our currency is held worldwide on a large scale
our debt is held worldwide on a large scale
we cannot force foreigners to hold onto them as they declines in value
now can we?

but we can start a wider war?
that would work
the only trouble with ALL ALTERNATIVES is that ......

GOLD NOW COMPETES WITH DOLLARS AS SAFE HAVEN
AND GOLD IS RISING, WHILE TBONDS ARE BEING THREATENED

/ jim