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To: Paul V. who wrote (59658)	6/4/2002 2:32:47 PM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 77397

Paul, I think you misunderstood what Dent was saying. He says there is always a good place to park your money, as long as you understand long term economic trends. First, around 2009, we should expect a huge rotation out of equities and towards fixed income securities. So if you anticipate this move and start moving to income securities before this seismic shift then you stand to make good gains. In addition, it's not like it will be a one year phenomenon. It will occur for many years, so bonds etc will continue to be a good investment during this time period. Having said that, the baby boomers have a problem in the short term. They were intending to retire en mass starting around 2008-9. Instead, they just had a lot of wealth evaporate on them. So they desperately need to invest that money for maximum gains in the next 6-7 years to prepare for their retirement. That means U.S. equities. We are already coming out of downturn. Things are looking good and the systemic problems are being scrutinized and taken care of (read Enron and executive fraud). So 2003 through 2006-7, from a macroeconomic perspective, looks really good for US equities. Now you have to seperate Dent's theories from what Bambs is saying. I think Bambs is bought into the theory that the financial system as we know it is rotten at the core and is due for an imminent collapse. In other words, he believes that our US government will monetize debt, which will immediately devalue all of our wealth due to the inflationary affect. He further believes that the ensuing loss of public confidence in US economics will cause a flight to gold. I don't believe either of those assumptions to be sound. First, I doubt very seriously the government will monetize the outstanding debt any time soon. Second, even if they do, there will be all sorts of places to flee (fixed income securities being one good place) that would provide a better long term return than gold. Gold is only a valuable commodity in the sense that some people buy it for jewelry and it has some industrial uses. But in the information economy, money is a concept, not a physical thing. It's hard to think this far ahead, but there will come a day when currency doesn't exist except as a digital representation of your personal purchasing power. That concept of your wealth will be backed by the full force and power of a consortium of countries globally whose main purpoase will be to ensure that the global economy keeps humming. I assure you they will not use gold as their store of wealth.

To: Paul V. who wrote (59658)	6/4/2002 10:38:53 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77397

"In it he refers that in 2009-2010 that the US market will turn south due to the baby boomers retiring and drawing dollars out of the market to maintain their standard of living. if this happens, based on what you have just said we may expect 20 years in the pits for the US market. " I'm quite sure that with at least $4.5 trillion lost in the stock mkts over the last couple of yrs, there's a heck of a lot less money in the market that remains to be withdrawn by baby boomers. A lot of investors have given up on stocks and they won't be back.