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To: Bill/WA who wrote (170139)6/4/2002 3:33:38 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Bill, use SI PM feature, not e-mail. I PM'd Heinz two days ago about his views. Got reply yesterday


Heinz, do you think we are set up for a big correction in gold and gold shares? IMHO gold may well correct up to $310, where would you see gold shares at that POG?
You have not posted on SI for almost 4 months. Everybody would love to see you there. Sometimes we see you posting on Mining Web but you completely ignore SI.

Best, Ilya


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Monday, June 3, 2002 4:49 PM ET
To: ild (who wrote)
From: heinz blasnik

Hi Ilya,
i think i'll post on SI again soon...it's just that i was extremely busy recently, and public posting on SI requires time to be able to react to all the replies i'm usually getting.

regarding the gold shares, i agree that a bigger correction is probably imminent. i've lightened up considerably on my positions in expectation of such a correction, although i did buy the most recent dip again for a quick trade. i also agree that the downside in the PoG is probably limited to the 310 area, or slightly higher...in which case i'd be looking for XAU 80, and HUI 110-120 approximately, for a credible wave 4 low.
one possibility is also that the broad market continues its waterfall decline, eventually culminating in a mini crash. in that case i think EVERYTHING will be taken down, including the gold shares, due to margin calls. by definition a crash is a low probability event, but with today's decisive break of the May lows, it has just become a little more probable.
i've a boatload of index puts, and although i sold some today, i retain a relatively large position in case my hunch that the market is in danger of falling apart completely proves correct.

regards,

hb