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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3399)	6/4/2002 2:54:11 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95632

Thanks for the links and the explanation. So basically you are looking for a blow off to show up in GNT's at a sustained level (over -1000) that we have not yet seen throughout this entire Bear Market. Personally I think it will take another exogenous shock like an additional terrorist attack on US soil or a nuclear war like the potential one between Pakistan and India that has been on everyones' minds for that to happen. That being said it sure could happen but we are likely to see more short term rallies like the one starting today before it happens. From Briefing.com: Market lifts on rumor of India-Pakistan truce. We would note that there have been pockets of buy interest in the market throughout the day, so late rebound in equities not a complete surprise. May be that the India-Pakistan rumor circulating trading floors is being rolled as traders look for explanation behind intraday recovery... Dow -33, S&P 500 -1.83, Nasdaq +10.5. 1:59PM Market Action : Nasdaq (+7.6) has pushed into positive territory, bouncing 22 pts off its lows of the day. Providing leadership in the tech sector is Software (+3.7%), which, along with much of the market, is benefiting from short-covering, deeply oversold short-term posture, and Wall Street defenses. On the Big Board, TYC (+4%), PFE (+2.9%), and Energy Merchants (EP +7%, DYN +6%, MIR +5%) are among the stocks pulling out of recent price slumps. 1:44PM Nasdaq Composite Intraday : -- Technical -- The index has bounced off the low but is holding below initial resistance at 1570. The semi index (SOX +1.4%) has helped to underpin but it has been stymied thus far by resistance at its early high near 460. Sustained penetration of these levels would help to improve the tone this afternoon. A similar level for the Semi HOLDRs is at 37.30/37.35. 1:28PM Market Volume : Total volume traded is moderate though stronger than experienced in recent sessions. The Nasdaq has just cleared the 1.0 billion share mark and is on pace for 1.7 to 1.8 billion shares for the day. NYSE volume is also moderate with 828 million total shares traded to this point in the session. 12:38PM Oak Tech falls on 4x avg volume (OAKT) 9.90 -2.10: Stock has racked up sizeable losses today on volume that has exceeded 4x average daily turnover. Market talk is that OAKT is being pressured by concerns over competition from Chinese companies and potential for margin pressure in the space. 12:33PM Semiconductor Sector Intraday : -- Technical -- SOX has traded a relatively tight range today, favoring levels around 455. From its current position, look for intraday support at 447/451 followed by another notable area at 424/428. To the upside, watch for near-term resistance at 460/465 followed by subsequent overhead at 471/474. 11:23AM Xilinx Intraday (XLNX) 31.35 +0.34: -- Technical -- Stock demonstrating relative strength, trading in positive ground and towards its best levels of the session. Look for initial resistance at 31.65 followed by secondary overhead at 32.00 -- on a break above those two points, stock has little subsequent overhead until 34.00. Note that the favorable intraday tone deteriorates on a break below very near-term support at 31.10. 11:17AM Marvell defended by Goldman, Lehman (MRVL) 26.69 -0.91: -- Update -- Stock has recovered somewhat after a number of firms defend MRVL against speculation the co could lose biz due to the IBM/Hitachi agreement (10:29). Goldman Sachs says the IBM/Hitachi news should not be hitting the stock since they think the co's good relationship with Hitachi could actually lead to more business with IBM, and believes the stock could reach the high $30s. Separately, Lehman says that as IBM separates it drive biz from its semi biz, firm believes that a vendor like MRVL could increase it total addressable mkt, and would be a buyer on today's weakness. 9:15AM Flextronics downgraded at Thomas Weisel (FLEX) 12.32: -- Update -- Thomas Weisel downgrades to ATTRACTIVE from Buy after the co issued cautious comments last night; cites co's lack of profitability, the retained earnings impact of charges, and reduced liquidity; cuts FY03 rev/EPS ests to $13.1 bln/$0.39 from $13.8 bln/$0.54, and removes target price due to view that there are few near-term catalysts driving share price appreciation. quote.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC+QQQ+^tic.o+^vix+^vxn+^tic.n+^sti.n+^sti.o&d=t Thanks again for the indicators and explanation! RtS