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To: Ali Chen who wrote (165757)	6/4/2002 2:59:59 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Ali, the S&P500 was approx. 500 in 1995. The 12%/year line would take it to 1105 this year, which is above the current level of 1050. Is there something I'm missing? Tenchusatsu

To: Ali Chen who wrote (165757)	6/4/2002 5:15:07 PM
From: John F. Dowd	Respond to of 186894

AC:Easy more many being spent on high margin tech products and expanding PE's.JFD

To: Ali Chen who wrote (165757)	6/4/2002 6:06:51 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Yeah, but from 1969 to 1980 the SP500 basically did nothing at all. That makes your assumption of 12% "regular growth" somewhat suspicious. People with a longer term horizon would say that some of the growth in the SP500 during the 80s and 90s was partially making up for an almost complete lack of growth for more than a decade before, and that the true long-term trend might be better expressed by looking at 1969-1994, for example. In that 25 year period the SP500 grew approximately 450% -- a little better than a 6% compounded return! What numbers would you get if you assumed THAT to be the "real" trendline? Not saying I necessarily believe it, but I find your assumptions somewhat arbitrary. mg