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To: Ali Chen who wrote (165767)	6/4/2002 4:32:27 PM
From: kapkan4u	Respond to of 186894

12% is way too optimistic. I believe that a more reasonable trend would be similar to what one would get from a mix of corporate, municipal and Treasury bonds -- something between 6% and 7%. This correlates well with the historic P/E of DOW stocks around 15. Now take a line in the DOW chart from the bottom in 1932 to the bottom in 1974. I suspect that this line will show compound annual return of no more than 7%. This would be my estimated trend line for the next major bear market bottom -- I think that we are now in a major bear market. Kap