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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (7542)	6/4/2002 8:40:16 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11568

<Ron the problem I see is no one is paying attention to what the market says nor to the companies outlook.> The problem that I see is you don't have a crystal ball, and don't know if a stock down 30% will recover in the near term. I refuse to sell a stock that is trading below the value of its cash just because the market is irrational in the short term. I don't know what the point of your summary was yesterday. It ignores gains and losses on closed positions, which as of yesterday stood at a net gain of $62,630. What if I had sold everything the day before you posted the summary? The net loss on those positions wouldn't have shown up in your list, but it would have been a loss nonetheless. We obviously have different opinions on what drives stock prices in the short term. The profit outlook for companies is only one factor that drives stock prices, and in fact, it isn't even the most prevalent factor in the short term. When people sell a stock below cash, it is irrational any way you look at it. When people dump any and all stocks, just because the CFO of a totally unrelated public corporation commits suicide, it is irrational any way you look at it. These types of irrational behavior are just as dumb as buying AMZN at a market cap that exceeds GM. When the market gets this irrational in the short term, a short term bottom is near. You can count on it, and I'm not selling anything until some rationality returns to the market and prices recover somewhat. I have stated my logic for holding, and even adding to select stocks down here. I'm sorry if you don't agree with me or don't like it, but I'm not going to sell my positions just because you think that's what I should do. Granted many of our positions are way down and in hindsight we should have sold them a long time ago. But like I said before, if we had sold them, chances are we would have bought them back again at a higher price than they now trade. We could have saved a little, but I doubt if it would have made a big difference. You ask why hold on to a losing position? Because a losing position can turn into a winning position just like a new position. The proof is in my actual results, which can be seen in closed trades over the last few years. By the way, several stocks that I follow made key reversals today. This means that they made a 52 week low and closed higher on the day. Here's a list of ones in the Z port that made key reversals today: CIEN, GLW, INTV, JDSU, NUAN, and ORCL. If we get any follow through tomorrow, coupled with the extreme pessimism in the market, irrational selling, and current valuations, we are set up for at least a tradeable bounce. That's when I will sell some positions, and it will be at a much higher price than where we sit today.