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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (36741)	6/4/2002 8:02:49 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 52237

just got home and found out I missed the Sew party again. Patron, I have been eyeing those MI people for a long time and still salivating. However, if we have any type of a reasonable economic recovery, these guys will do fantastically well. Profit from the mortgage insurers do not necessarily rely on huge volumes of refinancing or new loans, which actually cost them money to underwrite all that business. Persistency is where the money is at. If the loans generated during the recent waves of refinancing are allowed to season for a year or two, then the MIs will be very profitable and they may actually be cheap. However, if defaults start rising and housing prices stop appreciating, then the question would be how much reserves are needed. The most important part to watch is the subprime loans. They are obviously most at risk. There are only 3 major MI companies, MTG, RDN, PMI and Triad, a distant fourth. It should not be too difficult to watch. Ramsey