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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gold$10k who wrote (13848)	6/4/2002 7:53:51 PM
From: waverider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Gawd, I can't figure out this wave stuff. How can you have a wave 4 of 3??? wr

To: gold$10k who wrote (13848)	6/4/2002 9:14:48 PM
From: crustyoldprospector	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 36161

VT, here is an alternate scenario, FWIW. Gann turning points have worked pretty well the past few months (Gann turns are: 2/8 to 10, 3/21 to 24, 5/3 to 7, 6/20 to 24, 8/3 to 8, 9/21 to 24, 11/8 to 11, and 12/21 to 24). If you look at this chart: quotes.ino.com ... you can see the 2/8 and 3/21 turns were on the money as major turns. The 5/3 turn was present but muted, and was overwhelmed. Hence, we may not see highs in POG until 6/20! The 6/20-24 Gann turn is roughly coincident with the full moon on the 25th, and options expiration on the 22nd. A Friday-Monday whammy in the stock market around that time could send POG up quite a bit. Further to this point, a look at my favorite canary (you know it - MDG), shows it bumping the top of a channel, and if we break through that means MDG heads to 22. How do I read these "channels"? Draw parallel lines through these points on the chart below: lows of mid-july to mid-Sept lows of mid-Oct to mid-Nov AND highs of early Feb and today lows of Jan 1 to mid-Feb lows of mid-Mar to mid-May bigcharts.marketwatch.com Also, note that in the past 15 years, there tends to be a spike in the POG around 20 June: spectrumcommodities.com and volatility in the POG is not spiking as in previous tops in POG: sharelynx.net In sum, I see a convergence of factors saying today may well be a false top, like we saw around May 5, and with a little help from the falling dollar and DOW, POG could run to $350 and the XAU could hit 98 before we see the wave 4 pull-back. By the way, I would assume that POG hitting stride around 21 June will mean gold stocks peak a week +/- before that. I would expect gold stocks to tank with general equities if we see a crash-like event. Still cautious here, but not picking up all my marbles just yet. Crusty