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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (170267)	6/4/2002 10:33:13 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Baggs Biggs had too many olives in his Martini's last month: <<New York, June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co.'s Barton Biggs incorrectly forecast that stocks would fall in the 1990s. Now he says shares are about to rally, even as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index heads toward a third-straight annual decline. Biggs, Morgan Stanley's chief global strategist, told clients in a note today he has a ``hunch'' U.S. stocks are about to turn around.>> Why doesn't that silly old sot go do some charity work, or spend some time with the grand kids. LoooooooSER. dAK

To: Les H who wrote (170267)	6/4/2002 11:27:12 PM
From: SOROS	Respond to of 436258

"Barton Biggs incorrectly forecast that stocks would fall in the 1990s. " [strike one] "Now he says shares are about to rally" [alzheimer's is a terrible condition] "he has a 'hunch'" [probably gas or constipation] "who didn't identify the market measures he uses" [monitoring bowel frequency quite common at his age] "In the July 19, 1993 . . . He predicted U.S. stocks were due for a drop of 20 percent to 50 percent" [strike two] "Instead, the S&P 500 more than tripled" [wife discourages application for Mensa] "As recently as April, Biggs recommended that investors buy more shares of European companies" [hits a long ball] "Declines in major European indexes have surpassed those of the U.S. so his quarter" [foul play] "He was voted the top global strategist the past four years in Institutional Investor magazine's annual survey of money managers." [money managers -- second only to corporate CEO's in trustworthiness and credibility] "Now Biggs says the corporate accounting and management scrutiny that has snowballed since the collapse of Enron Corp. is close to playing out" [strike three] SOROS conclusion: Buy more gold. I remain, SOROS (old enough to recognize another old fartblowing gas, but still young enough to hold my nose and run the other way)

To: Les H who wrote (170267)	6/4/2002 11:40:38 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

U.S. Quantitative Strategy: Hanging in the Balance Joseph Mezrich The performance spread between U.S. equities and U.S. bonds so far this year has been 600 basis points. The negative correlation we are seeing between stocks and bonds is quite rare. It has occurred only three times in the past 75 years: in the 1930s, the 1950s, and now. This negative bond-stock correlation is associated with a low-inflation, low-growth environment that can persist for years. This is also what took place in Japan in the 1990s. The message we draw from the markets is that interest rate hikes are probably not warranted, and that investors need to be very good asset allocators to do well when correlations are so low and mistakes are costly. A way to hedge the risks is to balance your portfolio between stocks and bonds. For equity-only investors, the analog is to balance your portfolio between growth and value, since when bonds do well, value does well, and vice versa. As for the earnings outlook, the earnings-to-GDP ratio is near a 30-year low, having troughed in March. Historically, it takes about a year for the stock market to come back after a trough in this ratio, so by that measure, we would not expect to see a real market turnaround until the first quarter of 2003. morganstanley.com