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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (3416)	6/5/2002 8:53:34 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95632

Hi G, SHHHHH We want them to get interested at much higher levels.ggg Market turns today - I'm adding to on any dip - LTXX,Cohu and Intc(I'm back into Amat again hehe too). Hoping for a positive note from Intel @ mid quarter tomorrow - their comments have been hopelessly bland -anything upbeat would be a big change of posture - its getting economically time to acknowledge upturn. JMHO Bob

To: Gottfried who wrote (3416)	6/5/2002 9:06:06 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95632

From Briefing.com: 8:34AM Juniper Networks may have won Verizon deal-- Morgan Stanley (JNPR) 8.67: Morgan Stanley says channel checks indicate that Unisphere (recently acquired by JNPR) has won SMS biz at VZ; while this deal won't add to EPS ests in the next 12 months, firm views this as a positive for JNPR as Unisphere has experienced limited traction with RBOCs, and a win with VZ could position JNPR for additional RBOC wins in 2H02 and early 2003. Firm says if deal is true, it is marginally negative for RBAK and is too small to impact CSCO. 8:22AM Intel added to Morgan Stanley Global Fresh Money Buys List (INTC) 27.50: Stock trading at $27.50 in pre-market. 8:21AM IBM estimates cut at Thomas Weisel (IBM) 79.31: -- Update -- Thomas Weisel cuts 2002-03 ests for IBM after they announced yesterday a Q2 charge due to cost-cutting measures; analysis suggests these actions will benefit EPS by about $0.20 for the year, while a slower-than-anticipated capital spending recovery will negatively impact 2002 EPS by $0.35; as a result, firm cuts 2002 est to $3.95 from $4.10 and 2003 to $4.50 from $4.80; firm also says that IBM consistently maintains a trading range of 0.9x the S&P, which equates to a price of $73. Firm also notes that IBM-Hitachi agreement could be a negative for EMC and positive for QLGC. 8:14AM KLA-Tencor raised to Strong Buy at Piper -- sees earnings upside (KLAC) 51.16: USB Piper Jaffray upgrades to STRONG BUY from Outperform. Firm says its 2003 est of $1.55 is already above the $1.43 consensus, and USB believes there is upside potential to its numbers. Firm's 12-month target of $68.50 is based on 25x preliminary 2004 EPS + $6 per share in cash on balance sheet. 7:29AM LM Ericsson warns market will not improve next year (ERICY) 2.18: The Financial Times reports that ERICY CEO Hellström warned on Tuesday of a risk that there would be no improvement in mkt conditions next year: "We don't think the market has become worse but the downturn has been prolonged. We have to face the possibility that next year doesn't turn upwards," he told the FT. He said this was a "conservative" scenario and the group was still counting on returning to profit "some time next year"; he was also optimistic about the potential for 3G services, predicting that in 2005 there would be "massive use of 3G". finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC+^VIX&d=t We went from 84 oversold semiconductors to 55 yesterday.

To: Gottfried who wrote (3416)	6/5/2002 3:33:30 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 95632

Good Comments: If these statments are based on anecdotal observations around SI, then we need to acknowledge that the 'weak hands' have left long ago. Only survivors are left and they are certainly not complacent. Most seem to day trade, even if they didn't two years ago. Disinterest? Anecdotal again: some of my neighbors are just scared to invest now. But I don't know how to quantify that. I'm saying far too many talk about complacency and disinterest without any measurable backup. Their observations may be true, but are nearly useless because you cannot project how much complacency or disinterest is too much. We're better off talking about P/C ratios and such. Those can be measured. We have to remember that all those saying "we won't have a bottom until [fill in event, TA, Explosion, P/E level, etc.] happens" are probably short or just sitting on the sidelines waiting and hoping for the market to go lower and then a bell will ring for them to get back in. We have to remember that they are probably just as clueless about when a bottom will occur as the raging, Johnny come late to the punch bowl, bulls were at the very top. As to what the CEO's have to say.. Like Intel and HPQ the last two days... Hell, Carly was promising 20% growth at the top when I worked there for 20 yrs and thought any year with 15% revenue growth was great. Chambers of Cisco was saying 30% to 50% growth from where he sat at the bubble peak. Their ability to "predict the future" is next to useless and we should remember this when they speak. When they tell us what they are doing to compete at current business conditions...then I listen. I also listen to what they are investing in and where the R&D dollars are going. No R&D dollars and I don't invest. [rant of] Kirk As to CEO