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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (7545)	6/5/2002 8:18:04 AM
From: DanZ	Respond to of 11568

Ron, Good comments, and I agree with you. If you look at my trades this year, you will find that I would prefer to keep my positions to a size about in line with your suggestions. I specifically said that I planned to trade around a core position on CIEN, GLW, NUAN, ORCL, and SPWX. I have done that to an extent, but these stocks haven't given me a chance the last few weeks to lighten up. Am I wrong to wait for a rally to sell? In hindsight yes, but this only proves that I am human. I don't lie about my trades and claim to have a 100% batting average. However, my returns over the years have been fairly consistent, and there are times when I feel it is warranted to bend the rules and hold a stock that is in a decline. Such is one of those times because I see as much irrational selling today as irrational buying near the end of the bull run. It doesn't mean that these stocks won't go lower, but I can almost guarantee that they will trade at prices higher than today at some point in the not too distant future. Since Kelvin seems to be criticizing my trades in particular, I created the following summary of all my trades this year, including both open and closed positions. In summary, my positions are down a total of 8% this year, and that's not bad considering how poorly the market has done. If I was perfect, I would have sold everything and gone short, with the exception of GUMM lol. And by the way, my personal account is actually up this year, primarily because I have day traded the likes of CIEN, GLW, and ORCL, and missed out on some of the big declines. The results: CIEN Open Closed Total Shares: 3000 7000 10000 Avg cost: 8.67 8.87 8.81 Close: 5.49 9.59 8.36 $ Gain/Loss -9540 5040 -4500 % Gain/Loss -36.7% 8.1% -5.1% No. Positions 2 4 6 CSCO Shares: 2200 2700 4900 Avg cost: 17.88 14.45 15.99 Close: 16.08 15.02 15.50 $ Gain/Loss -3960 1539 -2421 % Gain/Loss -10.1% 3.9% -3.1% No. Positions 2 2 4 GLW Shares: 4000 6000 10000 Avg cost: 5.81 6.93 6.48 Close: 4.52 7.25 6.16 $ Gain/Loss -5160 1920 -3240 % Gain/Loss -22.2% 4.6% -5.0% No. Positions 2 3 5 GUMM Shares: 10000 0 10000 Avg cost: 6.9 0 6.90 Close: 9.5 0 9.50 $ Gain/Loss 26000 0 26000 % Gain/Loss 37.7% 0.0% 37.7% No. Positions 1 0 1 INTV Shares: 2000 2000 4000 Avg cost: 7.76 9.75 8.76 Close: 3.09 8.95 6.02 $ Gain/Loss -9340 -1600 -10940 % Gain/Loss -60.2% -8.2% -31.2% No. Positions 1 1 2 JDSU Shares: 15000 0 15000 Avg cost: 5.03 0 5.03 Close: 3.34 0 3.34 $ Gain/Loss -25350 0 -25350 % Gain/Loss -33.6% 0.0% -33.6% No. Positions 3 0 3 NUAN Shares: 11000 8000 19000 Avg cost: 6.66 6.46 6.58 Close: 4.72 7.12 5.73 $ Gain/Loss -21340 5280 -16060 % Gain/Loss -29.1% 10.2% -12.9% No. Positions 5 5 10 ORCL Shares: 4000 0 4000 Avg cost: 9.03 0 9.03 Close: 7.82 0 7.82 $ Gain/Loss -4840 0 -4840 % Gain/Loss -13.4% 0.0% -13.4% No. Positions 2 0 2 SPWX Shares: 3000 8500 11500 Avg cost: 9.55 7.92 8.35 Close: 4.21 8.55 7.42 $ Gain/Loss -16020 5355 -10665 % Gain/Loss -55.9% 8.0% -11.1% No. Positions 2 6 8 ERICY Shares: 0 6000 6000 Avg cost: 0 5.22 5.22 Close: 0 4.03 4.03 $ Gain/Loss 0 -7140 -7140 % Gain/Loss 0.0% -22.8% -22.8% No. Positions 0 2 2 IBM Shares: 0 300 300 Avg cost: 0 83.8 83.80 Close: 0 87.5 87.50 $ Gain/Loss 0 1110 1110 % Gain/Loss 0.0% 4.4% 4.4% No. Positions 0 1 1 Total Shares: 54200 40500 94700 Avg cost: 7.13 8.34 7.65 Close: 5.85 8.62 7.03 $ Gain/Loss -69550 11504 -58046 % Gain/Loss -18.0% 3.4% -8.0% No. Positions 20 24 44