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Technology Stocks : Network Appliance -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (10207)	6/5/2002 6:33:01 PM
From: BirdDog	Respond to of 10934

... I have listened to a lot of people, who were staunch BuyAndHolders through 2000 and 2001, who have finally given up. I wonder where these people are? They gave up at the bottom? ... if NTAP and the Nas take out their 9/01 lows. You do realize that the nasdaq is now testing the 9/01 lows. I think there is a very good chance it will break those lows with a dramatic capitulation phase. At that time we'll see if ntap can hold it's 9/01 lows. I'm planning on buying in big on that. Would like to think we're going up from here...but doubt it. BirdDog@Prairie.com

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (10207)	6/5/2002 7:09:00 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 10934

Since that is now the consensus, and everyone is now range-trading and shorting, those methods will now stop working well, first of all, "everyone" doesn't do these things. i bet 99% of the posts on this thread are from longs, for example. in my own case, most of my portfolio is LTBH, although i buy value stocks and dividend payers like REITs. i have a certain percentage of shorts that help reduce portfolio volatility. secondly, while countertrend rallies will continue to happen, many stocks, especially certain tech stocks, are still hideously overvalued, and are now being exposed for the pathetic Ponzi schemes they are. so i still think the long-term direction is DOWN. btw, reshorted SMH again.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (10207)	6/6/2002 12:34:03 PM
From: Trio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

Yours is an interesting perspective. I hope your right. I "feel" the urge to trade more actively but would rather be more LTB&H. Have been adding to several positions incrementally over the last three months. Regards, TRIO

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (10207)	6/14/2002 10:02:19 AM
From: JakeStraw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10934

Network Appliance: positive comments by Merrill (NTAP): Merrill Lynch believes that new products will deliver significant rev over the next 2 years and that the enterprise NAS biz will continue to grow even if IT spending continues to languish. Reiterates Near-Term Buy rating has an implied price target of $16. finance.yahoo.com

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (10207)	7/29/2002 11:54:31 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 10934

hi Jacob, on June 5 you wrote: Current sentinent indicates to me that it may, finally, be time to go back to BuyAndHold. I am more bullish now than I've been in 2 years NTAP closed at 13.31 that day. now it would need to gain more than 60% to get back to the level of 13.31. (perhaps that closing price was what did it--it is, after all, a palindrome of thirteen.) in any case, you exhibited quite some conviction that shorts were about to get killed: . Amateur shorts will be slaughtered, to balance all the amateur longs who DrankTheKoolAid in the Bubble. i think you were not being objective. shorts were slaughtered throughout the late 90s. the amount of shorts, even now, is pitifully small compared to long dollars. and most of the short dollars are not "amateurs" but rather hedge funds. (not that they should be expected to do any better than the amateurs...) where is the value in many of these tech companies? i have made money on every tech short this year (especially on NTAP, which i unfortunately but predictably closed out too early). while it is not surprising to see bear market rallies, i would not mistake these for a new bull. however, i closed out all my shorts last week and actually went long Tuesday (seemed like a very good point in terms of negative sentiment buildup, though the jury is still out on the valuation front). i am now 35% long and the rest bonds and cash. only a small amount of longs in the US large caps. i think it will be many years before tech stocks are a buy, and many more permabulls will get killed than "amateur shorts" before the market truly bottoms. remember, when the bottom does come, stocks will actually be at very compelling valuations compared to bonds. PE of 7 in 1974; dividend yield of 10% on the DOW in 1932. today's market doesn't even come close. when market strategists get on TV and say this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime, i don't know whether to laugh or cry at these jokers.