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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (75139)	6/5/2002 10:34:11 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99280

Ork, I might add that IF we have a max pain rally without GNTs then I do not believe we will see the bottom in June. No time for it. Without GNTs coming to a theatre near you soon, then I believe the Nasacre continues into July, interrupted by the Max Pain rally. IF we do not have a max pain rally and sink into expiry it can be far bloodier than turnips suggest due to delta hedging. EVERY month we think short hedging has occurred (and perhaps it had), but those shorts are EXTREMELY FAST reversed on any bit of good news. Going back CSCO, before that NVLS and probably horsesh*t upgrades/downgrades before that. M

To: mishedlo who wrote (75139)	6/5/2002 10:42:44 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

EVERY damn month I come up with excuses why Max Pain rally may not/will not occur. Every Damn month for 7 months we have hit Max pain by Wed of Expiry week. Sometimes we reversed on Wed sometimes (last month) we kept on chugging. I predict once again we do the same. You get my vote for the best post of the day. <g> I thought there was no way in hell, we could have hit max pain on QQQ for May expirations. Do you recall that first day of those huge gains? I remember that there was even bad news on the terrorism/war the night before that monster rally. No bad news was going to stop max pain from working. I have a hunch that since volume on the markets is getting less and less, max pain becomes a bigger force in determining where the market goes. After witnessing last month, there is no way we are not going to hit max pain on the QQQs for June expirations.(32/33). What I think happens this month is that we gravitate towards it a lot earlier than usual (2 to 4 days from now) as more and more traders realize it significance. It must have converted a lot of people last month.