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Strategies & Market Trends : Dave Gore's Trades That Make Sense -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Gore who wrote (7705)	6/6/2002 6:57:14 PM
From: Dave Gore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16631

BIG QUESTION -------- Are we getting close to capitulation? Maybe not as close as some think. Tomorrow may be a key day and may help determine if we are going to retest Sept. Lows of 1385. Not tomorrow of course but over the next few weeks. I still find it interesting that NSM's really good news and TXN's affirmation are being ignored, while INTC's weak outlook is being given "star billing". If NSM also tanks tomorrow, that is one sign that capitulation actually may be close, since often a clue is when all stocks are thrown out the window. One caveat though it that NSM has a FY2003 PE of 75. Pretty crazy for next year's earnings, so maybe that is not a good example. In fact, if NSM tanks tomorrow it is probably more a sign that valuations are still too rich in the chip sector. TXN has a PE of 90 on this year's and 35 on next year's consensus eps, so that stock is also rich. While yesterday it looked like the geo-political news was the real fear, now it's clear that there are other real concerns weighing on investor's minds, like corporate corruption, foreign money leaving the Markets, still overly high valuations (i.e. INTC PE of 35-40 and AMAT PE of 118) and other factors. This continues to be a Market that is rewarding the short players. With every little step forward we seem to fall 3 steps back. Maybe there's one giant step left .....DOWN!