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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: riposte who wrote (4497)	6/7/2002 11:09:36 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24758

Ahhaha, a long time ago (I had to guess, I'd say it was around the NASDAQ 5K level) you predicted a stock market crash - I believe you used the word "armageddon", but SI's search doesn't go back that far. To get a little flavor of it you can go to the NEM thread around 300 or so. Out of curiosity, is where we're currently experiencing that event, or were you expecting even worse? I wasn't expecting anything but a correction to the ridiculous excesses of the late '90s. That's exactly what we've had. The market, the NAZ, peaked in Oct '97 according to every trade money flow which I compute daily in a unique way which I invented 20 years ago. Money flow then proceeded straight down without a back-up while the yahoos drove price for two years straight up. The only thing that has happened is a correction to that excess. Money flow didn't bottom until April '01 and has been rising steadily in the same way that it declined steadily across '98, '99, and '00. Meanwhile, the same set or a new collection of yahoos have driven price down in reverse fashion to what happened during the so-called bull market. It wasn't a bull market and this isn't a bear market. In a bear market the market seems to be rising, corporate profits are strong, there's lots of confidence, the economy is good, employment is high, there are shortages, interest rates are rising with rising inflation which is ignored because people are feeling so hunky. Sentiment is clearly bullish. The yahoos are screaming for higher prices. We have none of that. Given the strength of money flow, once the "bad news" evaporates, and it will disappear and be forgotten so quickly that people will say, "how could anyone be so stupid as to think there was bad news". They will say the war on terror had no more significance than did the Cold War. Then they will say "you need apparently bad news for stock prices to be low and people should buy when prices are low". No one is saying that now because "this time it's for real". Then they will explain that the Cold War was never a threat to stock prices. As I write this, I'm watching those twits on CBNC talk about how the economy MUST be getting better with the historically low Fed rates. Somehow, they get paid for this. The data is decisive that the economy is rapidly improving. In fact, improvement is occurring so quickly that FED has to get off their negative real cost of money interference engineering which will be causing all kinds of havoc downstream that their interference always causes. It was FED who enabled the excesses of the late '90s. If the market had been allowed to price money none of the speciously rationalized WinXXX productivity money pumping would have occurred, and so there would have been a clamp on IPOs, heavy corporate borrowing, and the wild giddies of the public yearning to retire at 30. Assuming FED only errs at the usual grievous rate we should be reversing soon enough and advancing in a way similar to the drop in 2000. It's the flip side of bs. The stock market accounts for the past over and over, so it's always way after the fact. Thus you should be looking for opportunity to buy stocks which will be beneficiaries of the coming environment. Of course, FED can blow it and money flow can reverse. If either occurs, you will have to hide in cash.