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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FaultLine who wrote (31817)	6/7/2002 12:00:09 PM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

>Within a generous range, this system is very stable and adaptive. There have been some very accessible pieces published in Scientific American over the years that describe the current models and go on to explain the various sources and sinks in the global CO2 cycle.> Ultimately, in complicated systems, the qualitative model is not sufficient, but useful as a reality check. The quantitative models can be reasonably accurate within the limits of the set of assumptions used to develop the models. As you say, within a generous range, this system is very stable and adaptive. However, the important question is: how badly could the slightly larger perturbations affect life in "internet time", and not whether the system will stabilize in geological time? After all, 3000 people dying in a twin tower implosion is a minuscule percentage in the scale of humankind mortality rate, but has large implications on the political life of the world, which can multiply this affect thousand times, for example if nuclear weapons get used. Arun

To: FaultLine who wrote (31817)	6/7/2002 1:31:13 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Within a generous range, this system is very stable and adaptive. There have been some very accessible pieces published in Scientific American over the years that describe the current models and go on to explain the various sources and sinks in the global CO2 cycle. Ken, We humans have such a hard time with non-linear dynamic systems. Unfortunately our world consists mostly of dynamic systems and the linear forcasting tools we take for granted are not useful. There is an urgent need for a vocabulary to allow people to easily grok dynamic systems and the effect of feedback. I work with high tech companies who preach the gospel of change to their customers. The dynamics of technology markets have been well understood for over a decade. Still, 90% of technology companies develop their business strategies based on linear extrapolation of the current situation. This effect contributed to the Internet bubble. The entire world assumed a linear course for the impact of the Interent. Of course it does not work that way. Now, as we get closer to inflection points, the whole world is preaching the death of the Internet. Qu'ell surprise. Imagine a model of health based on the principles of dynamic systems. What would a health care system look like then? How about reduce the cost of health care by having people avoid getting sick! Paul@dynamic,complex,postmodern,soapboxes.com