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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (6274)	6/8/2002 1:17:48 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 33421

IMO, too many people expecting a bounce off the sept lows. I think we slice right through those levels without hesitating. I concur.. And it's because MSFT and INTC, two of the last "generals" of the Nasday who have yet to fall, despite MSFT's tremendously high P/E in a slow growth environment (which Intel's news is predicting will continue). MSFT has a huge market cap and has long been considered a "safe haven". I really don't believe that's the case any longer, not matter how much cash they have on hand ($7/share in cash) biz.yahoo.com Shave it down to $35-40/share (which I see as possible before the end of the year) and that will take a chunk of market cap off of both the Nasdaq and DOW. money.cnn.com If MSFT wants to support their bloated stock price, they will have to engage in a share-buyback binge and I don't see Bill Gates doing that at current valuations except for the purpose of buying back shares from exercized options in order to keep further dilution from occuring. And the Weekly stochastics on MSFT have rolled over which suggests that next week may be rather bloody and take the stock back to near September lows: bigcharts.marketwatch.com At such a point we'll like see a rally, but I don't think we'll see a reversal of the downtrend. The question is whether we can find some other stocks that can eventually grow themselves to such an extent that they can replace MSFT or INTC and buoy the DOW and NAZ. Hawk