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To: cfimx who wrote (49520)	6/7/2002 5:21:12 PM
From: Charles Tutt	Respond to of 64865

I think a modest decline in the dollar (such as we are experiencing) is wonderful. It makes our exports more attractive to foreigners, encourages Americans to buy USA made goods rather than imports, makes our stock market look cheap to money abroad, and boosts the value of repatriated overseas earnings by multinationals. As long as the inflationary effects aren't too great and the Fed doesn't feel compelled to try to support the dollar by raising interest rates, I don't see the downside. Any inflationary effects could be mitigated if foreign suppliers respond by lowering their prices in an attempt to boost sales. BWDIK? It's JMHO. Charles Tutt (SM)

To: cfimx who wrote (49520)	6/7/2002 5:28:54 PM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

"But I believe there is a problem (dollar; derivative related?)lurking out there that will get us sometime in the next three to five years," I believe there is a problem out there that will get us within the next month. It is the Public Debt. It is at its congress set ceiling and there is a serious risk of the US govt defaulting on its debt payments. That, not war in India/Pakistan or terrorism, has been the direct reason for the run in gold and the fall in the dollar recently. We are literally days away from this coming to a head. I don't expect a default because the ceiling will likely be raised. But the risk of default, and the publicity the Dems will ensure while getting the limit raise through congress, will shake the markets.