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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (76242)	6/7/2002 6:53:50 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

e February "bottom", occurred without any GNT (one of many reasons I climbed on board only after the Naz was up 100 points from that bottom), it can happen here again, of course possible, but not likely this time. expectations of a 2H recovery are built into stock prices. we're entering warnings season. the fist real semi cracked today. others will be following suit. I read somewhere today that the Taiwan foundries had placed all their orders wiht the expectation of more than an inventory restocking. they are going to start canceling their orders. the last generals are falling. dow type stocks are next. in February there was a lot of hope after the massive liquidity injections from 9/11. hope is slowly dying. I won't be surprised to see more semi equip downgrades next week. it's going to be tough to mount a sustainable rally now. tomorrow, I take my 13 year old son on his first trip to Fenway, and we get to see Pedro vs. Schilling. this is what life is all about. ork

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (76242)	6/7/2002 7:28:33 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, I don't use the tick in my model but have started tracking it over the last few months based on your posts. Unfortunately I can't find any site that has intraday ticks going back more a few months so it is hard to do a historic analysis. However, if I recall correctly last September we got the -1000/-1200 NYSE ticks but the Nasdaq ticks were not so low and only in the -800 range and not as low as prior bottoms. I may be wrong and am curious if you recall the same. If so, maybe the sum of the two would be best indicator? My model (which is tickless) is getting quite close to a buy but not there yet, and I am going from 25% short to 100% cash on Monday. And ready for a bull to ride soon hopefully! Tom