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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (14082)	6/8/2002 12:40:53 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

It seems like we are at a point in the market where there is no place to hide. Bonds look toppy, gold looks topped out short term, the CRB looks like it is out of gas, and the stock market looks like it's ready for a significant slide. The action in TYC, INTC, RFMD etc etc. are today's symptoms of some bigger problems in the works imo. Looking at the charts it's hard to find a good idea from the long side. I'm going to sit out for a while and watch. M.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (14082)	6/8/2002 8:51:55 AM
From: pogbull	Respond to of 36161

Hi Slider: I would appreciate your thoughts on possessing physical gold and silver going forward. While many equities in this area have been 2, 3, or 4 baggers the bullion hasn't moved nearly as much. I recently sold a home (unfortunately, I also inherited another house just prior to closing) and put half of the tax free profit from that sale into a physical position in pm. My intention is to hold this for some time 2004/5 ish and then to sell and pick up another home after the housing bubble bursts. Your thoughts would be appreciated. How did you make out on your purchase of physical. I've used tulving.com in the past and have found them to be very reliable. Thanks, John

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (14082)	6/8/2002 12:28:01 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 36161

two key factors worsen over time, still pressing gold up real rate of shorterm interest now consensus building that FedFunds will remain 1.75% so 3-mo TBill yield minus inflation minus taxes is zero it has been near zero since Oct 2001, big big motive for gold trade gap widening by the month as it approaches 5% of US GDP, mounting pressure on dollar big big motive for 15% dollar haircut trimming I hear you on the care taken to guard profits in miners but the dollar has a long way to go down it is now sitting treacherously at 111, below 112 critical support level I expect 108 will soon be reached for the US$ gold miner stocks are coming off absurd historical lows easy money is done for sure after some consolidation over time, however, resumption miners are not just getting too far ahead of physical gold they have made up for some absurd undervalue neglect each factor must be considered marginal mines are now economical holding company mines are now marginal these are 10-fold valuation thresholds imho more gains are coming in future months but not quick new doubles when #330 is breached, when US$ 110 is breached... GOLD WILL GO POSSIBLY BALLISTIC then come the $25 jumps Hathaway expects on given days I believe more big gains are coming but perhaps not in early summer, gold's low season quickly arrives gold's high season, which is mid-autumn my understanding is that gold's high is linked to Christmas jewelry purchases good luck, good work, good riddance Strong Dollar / jim

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (14082)	6/8/2002 9:22:48 PM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Slider, thank you for your insight and strategic comments. I have had this in the back of my head though for the last week or so and just needed to post it at some point. When are we going to see some real decent money being made in mining and resources for that matter (not in the stock trading itself but rather the business of mining the earth)? How about farming? I mean, the reason i moved heavily into large producers starting in 99 was to eventually capture a nice dividend as well (apart from the aberration that Franco Nevada was priced at 12.50 at one point ...) . So why can`t we expect in the future, perhaps a near future, a return of a part of real profits to the shareholder, which is the reason anybody "goes in business" and becomes a shareholder (instead of the greater fool theory of profits...) Companies like NEM, GFI, GG, GLG and, others to be frank, doing honest work and making an honest profit paying us (the part owners). Now that would necessitate a higher and more stable POG but what i dont understand is that I have not seen a post on ANY board discussing PM stocks that would consider this eventuality. Instead we seem to have two camps, one predicting gold to the moon, which in my opinion would mean another bubble, fine if you can get out at the top, less fine if it means :" another one bites the dust " or two, this can`t be true, gold will be slammed down again, supply is sufficient or the cabal is too strong and well you know the song, 350 is top, we can`t go higher... These two camps don`t allow a middle ground where PMs become a business again, with predictable profits, dividends paid by producers, speculation in the explorers and some bottom market where putting dollars is akind to Las Vegas, but nevertheless a functioning market in PMs companies. There will definitely be more than one way to skin this cat as is often said, but for some, sitting and waiting is gonna be the easiest and most profitable way to play it out. Not everyone owns an option account ( i do but my performance is erratic and in fact i am in the red again waiting for a sharp two day correction by June 12 otherwise i liquidate and i am back to the "stalking game " again, options are definitely not easy and the learning curve is steep) so i say, why not just sit back, practice good money management, have some physical (up to 10% of assets, after that it is not survival, it becomes speculation) , keep a good portion in PM stock (say 50%) and look for contrarian plays when some sectors become screaming buys (for a while i should say cause the PM sector was a screaming buy for a long time). That said i did move out of 25% of my PM PF last week on Tuesday and posted such here, but i think i was just lucky to be at this intermediate top. My partner wanted out cause she needed the money and looking at the charts going vertical it seemed it was a good point to pick an exit. I personally would not have sold and would have been kicking myself in the rear end for missing a good exit point (Intermediate term) but all i sold could be double what i sold at next week, what do i know???? Sorry for the long weekend rant, cant really put my ideas together but just thought i put it on the thread as part of the debate. One more thing, i firmly believe now that the biggest problem the world has is not having honest money. The way it is distributed around is way down the list. later Stephan