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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (3007)	6/8/2002 10:00:31 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7827

Hi G, Humbling isn't it.gg Sometimes the darn conductor forgets his lunch pail and has to return-thusly resulting in the term false start. Actually I'm very happy with Cohu's trading.Scary as it is.The worst case scenario of diptheria was a 36 day decline and the price going to .6132% of its previous high. That would be Friday ( Day 36 from 4/17)of course nothing says this cycle can't be longer.In view of the blow off top we had in 2000 - it's probably safe to say it will take longer.Then again in view of the vicious decline we've already had - it may be enough. Friday's price decline has gone to an amazingly close 19.05 from the projected worst case 18.80 or .6215334 dip factor of the recent high @ 30.65 on 4/17. Now I'm not saying that friday was the turn around - but I'm saying there seems to be a lot of similarities during past cycle recoveries.Past dips have always been reversed by continued improvement in bookings and backlogs. As corporate profitability continues to gain strength - more upgrades will be implemented.Larry Bossity (CEO) of Honeywell said last week "I watch orders of manufacturing equipment and they're beginning to come in).This comment contrasts starkly with his last visit in Q1(with Jack Welch from GE at his side) - when he said"He didn't see it coming". Intel has led the world in doing the "invest regardless of the economy".As Jacob rightly points out -the wafer fabs in Taiwan are closely parralleling the Intel way of staying out in front.The rest will HAVE to follow at a later time. That will define the next top as those laggards all get in line clamoring for the good stuff - double orders and all those toppy kind of tricks will once again swell backlogs.These backlogs will then extrapolate huge higher levels of earnings and we need to be out before then.ggg It is mentally very helpful to understand what has happened in the past so that the current action is not as frightening as it is intended to be. When one is prepared for the worst it is easier to deal with it. Most think there is more to come - I think we are there right now - it is awfully close by historical standards and this economy is really doing quite well. I was most impressed that Cohu was the first semi equipment stock to get in the green on Friday.The volume of yesterday was light on the downtrend and picked up as the stock recovered.This is a glimpse into future price action once the sector reverses - Cohu may well be a breakout leader.There it will be - its pretty little chart in IBD's technology section under "Market Leaders". Too much coffee this morning.hehe Any thing lower from here is quite a great opportunity - gulp Hey - did I feel that train car give a little nudge?? Bob