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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RetiredNow who wrote (59739)6/8/2002 8:34:22 AM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 77400
 
Hi all, one of the reasons I disagree with Bambs and the gold bugs, as well as the other doom and gloomers on this thread is due to the work by the folks at the ECRI. They are more accurate than anyone else when it comes to understanding turning points in the business cycle. They claim, with a lot of evidence to back it up, that the economy will accelerate from a tepid recovery to a very robust recovery later on this year. So like I've said in the past, 2003 will be a good year for the stock markets and for Cisco in particular.

RIGHT NOW is the best buying opportunity you are going to get for the next bull run that will last us through 2006-7 and maybe even 2008-9. Everyone is so focused on the short term bad market returns, but you all really need to be focused on the long term trends. They are still intact. One book I recommend is The Roaring 2000's Investor, by Dent. Also watch ECRI weekly. In fact, invest by it, because it will pay huge dividends to you.

business2.com
businesscycle.com

Of course, all the above is just my opinion. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions before you do any investing. But if you do anything at all, take a look at long term planning and investing. Daytrading is nothing more than gambling. The smart money knows that.



To: RetiredNow who wrote (59739)6/8/2002 9:47:58 AM
From: hueyone  Respond to of 77400
 
The truth is that this is accounted for in Earning Per Fully Dilute Shares, which most analysts use when calculating PE etc. Given that, I'd argue that Wall Street is not being fooled by options not being expensed, because it shows up in diluted EPS.

Mindmeld: You are definitely missing something. Employee stock options impact shareholders in two ways. The dilution impact that you keep referring to is only one of the two ways. If the impact from employee stock options was only a dilution impact, then it wouldn't make a rats ass difference what the strike price is or what the market price is at exercise, or alternatively, it would not make a rat's ass difference what price the company could sell these same shares to the public for at full value for, or alternatively it would not make a rat's ass what the value of the these options are at grant using Black Scholes valuation model, but these things do matter. As soon as options are granted there is an estimated value and as soon as they are exercised, it is easy to calculate an actual value. (By the way, Buffet can calculate an actual cash value at any time---even when the options are underwater.) Simply looking at net income based on diluted shares does not capture all the expense and is a bogus argument.

fortune.com

Giving out options costs a company's shareholders in two ways. The first is by diluting their stake in the company. When employees exercise their options, a company has to issue new shares. This means there are more shares outstanding, which in turn means the stake of existing shareholders in the company is reduced. So when an option is issued, it amounts to a claim on the company-- think of it as someone putting a lien on your house. And the only way to find out about that lien is to look deep in the footnotes of the annual report.

The other price shareholders pay is the opportunity cost their company incurs by selling shares at a low price to employees instead of selling them at full price to investors. If a company were to take all those discounted shares and sell them instead on the open market, it would of course have a lot more cash to spend. And whatever it spent that cash on--machines, consultants, salaries, bonuses--would show up as an expense on the income statement. In economic terms there is no difference between compensating employees by giving them cash and paying them with securities that they can convert into cash. To put it another way: If selling shares to the public and using the proceeds to pay an employee is a cost, then selling those shares to that same employee at a discount (and letting him book the resale profit) is no less a cost.


Best, Huey