Zeev's NASDAQ prognosis, updated Saturday, June 8
I. The Turnips have indicated that Phase II will not be the end of the Nassacre.
II. Prognosis for next week,
The Turnips have revised their target for next week, i.e., June 10-14.
The “nominal low” is now 1459, and should be reached on Wednesday, +/- a day.
II. Post June 12 Bounce
Following the low the morning of Wednesday, June 12, (+/-), the NAS should bounce, possibly as high as 1595, but most likely no higher than Friday’s 1559.
Phase III
I. If next week’s low is 1459 or greater, then the Phase III bottom should be 1400 +/- 15 points, i.e., 1385-1415.
II. If next week’s low exceeds 1459, i.e., is lower than 1459, then the rest of Phase III should not take us lower than just above next week’s low.
III. Zeev says there is an outside possibility that “the” bottom could go as low as 1296, and at least a nominal chance that it could be even lower. But it is too early to say more on this subject.
IMPORTANT NOTES
I. Details of the above depend upon how we do early next week, plus what the next bounce turns out to look like.
II. We still have not had three days of “GNT” (Grand Negative Ticks, or -1000 Nasdaq TICK counts). Remember that the formula calls for three of those puppies during the days of:
* Friday, June 7
* Monday, June 10
* Tuesday, June 11
* Wednesday, June 12 (morning)
Friday is gone, with no GNT, so we’d need three in a row unless the nominal low is not reached until Thursday.
AUGIE’S NOTE REGARDING -1000 TICK READINGS
Several people have reported seeing multiple GNTs from their data providers during the past two weeks, and thus insist that the Nassacre has progressed farther than Zeev admits.
Zeev’s response is that different services calculate the TICK in slightly different manners, and thus arrive at slightly different numbers. Zeev has been feeding the Turnips Yahoo data since they were sprouts. Changing their feed now would likely give them indigestion.
Augie’s advice is, if you are so much more confident in your data provider’s numbers than in the Turnips, by all means, feel free to go clown long at the open on Monday. Just don’t blame the Turnips if you get scalped.
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What do the Turnips see beyond the Nassacre?
* Short, but “possibly violent” rally/up-move, starting around 6/28.
* Stagnation and a trading range during most of the summer.
* In September, the Turnips see a possible retest of the June bottom. Right now they seem to think that the June bottom will survive this test.
* At the moment, the Turnips foresee a very strong fourth quarter, but that can easily change.
What is the Turnips’ prognosis for Biotech in the post-Nassacre period?
Zeev says, Initially, the biotech will run, but then, I think they'll split into "operating companies" and "dream companies" (the latter dragging with them the former), with the dream companies (particularly those selling at more than twice cash), starting to behave like the dot.com in 2000, and leading the way to new lows in the BTK in each retrenchment that follows. I don't think that biotechs are going to be too fruitful in the next six months.
What should we buy in the aftermath of the Nassacre to get the biggest possible return?
Zeev says, QLGC, EMLX and BRCM in that order, if you need more, then BRCD and GNSS, plus a few other high beta stocks. |
