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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (64271)	6/9/2002 10:30:38 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Mike interesting how quiet it is. I think the bears have had fear put into them with last weeks two intraday rally - both of which almost took the market positive - but right at break even they faltered.If you have a short position this gives a glimpse of your greatest fear - and they both happened so fast.Cnbc called it a buy program coming in. On the otherhand longs had friday mornings VIX to almost 30 and put to call ratio @ .90 plus indicating fear by the long. This is the equilibrium point of a market doing a slow turn from Bear to Bull.It has to be quick - because good economic statistics are choking the now very profitable bears -who have been very right for a long time now. Being very right for a long time is a scary thing.Hanging tough on the short side is a good way to lose your profits.So is staying long too long waiting for a new high. All in all fear and questions race thru all investors minds. Bulls have time on their side July 6th 2002 -the very first fed rate cut will be 18 months ago - all economic pundants acknowledge rate cuts have lags - most say the lag is 12-18 months.The cumulative rate cuts were in fact the fastest most substantial in history - safe to say the now impacting benefits will come faster and with good momentum equal to the degree of the rate cascade down. We are in a sweet spot where the news will get better and better. What the bears have to do is walk away from the honey tree and no one ever likes to do that.Especially when the return trip is to a dank old nasty cave. Next week will be a great week. This quiet is perhaps one of the best contray indicators one can observe. Sort of like a no trade day - good sign. Bob