Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (51639)	6/8/2002 2:39:05 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

The important point of the bowling-pin analogy is that when one pin falls, it knocks down a couple of other pins. Done much bowling? Hit one pin and only and it may well not take down any more; hit a couple of pins and get them churning around and the whole set may fall. Same with the bowling pin part of the market, I think.

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (51639)	6/8/2002 3:49:29 PM
From: chaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike: Re:When we identify a particular(data) application that we like... What sounds like a good idea isn't always. I've recently signed on for digital TV with ATT. After two weeks, I don't like it, so am going back to analog. I object to longer channel-to-channel cycle times, disconcerting picture capture, advertised gain (dvd-like)in picture quality didn't happen, sound quality poorer because volume frequently changes mid program, (BTW, I'm simultaneously questioning GMST...small ads aren't legible, on screen guide much less useful than dead tree version, too much switching back and forth to guide page.) I'm also sans wireless thus far, so I have a hard time picturing what might be an attractive data application. Will someone offer a list of such applications that would be sufficiently attractive to a business user, or a consumer user. Chaz PS. ATT presently allows only two digital boxes per address, and tells me this is temporary...they'll soon be allowing only one. Obviously there is demand for the service so my reaction is just a survey of one. Maybe we should buy MOT.

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (51639)	6/10/2002 8:44:41 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

re: Mobile Wireless Merrcedes Style Would this suit your fancy? 3g.co.uk - Eric -

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (51639)	6/22/2002 7:57:06 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

--Mike, re: Positioning wireless data in the TALC << Although Mike Buckley feels that wireless data is not yet in the chasm, I do - but thats another discussion. ... Recent data is making me think that it is indeed in the chasm. ... >> Perhaps you could reference the particular "recent data" that is making you think that wireless data is indeed in the chasm. Are you referring to subscriber data from Korea and Japan, ARPU increases there, and percentage of users that use the mobile Internet with WAP 2.0 (or an equivalent) which is essentially derived from i-mode in Japan, there? To me the most important data related to this is that the pragmatist decision makers at over 200 mobile wireless carriers worldwide have not only made the decision to implement mobile-IP but in fact over 150 carriers are currently rolling out requisite infrastructure. The first bowling pin was taken out some time ago - SMS messaging. ... The important point of the bowling-pin analogy is that when one pin falls, it knocks down a couple of other pins. The reason I don't place a lot of emphasis on SMS as a bowling pin is because I'm not able to identify the adjacent bowling pins that are likely to be knocked down because of adoption of SMS. >> On Thursday morning Jorma Ollila discussed the transition of the wireless industry that is underway. It is the same transition we discuss here as we try to position wireless (voice and) data in the TALC. You may find the format of the slide he used when he made the following statement interesting: I'm using Geoff Moore's framework ... it has been a good way of explaining what has happened in the technology industry in the last 15 years ... The next step after the early market [for wireless data] which was enabled by devices like the Communicator which combined voice and data is imaging.... imaging will be entering the tornado in the next 6 to 12 months, enabled by changes in the networks and imaging phones. images.visualwebcaster.com Now it is entirely possible that Jorma is overly optimistic about when tornado growth for MMS enabled "imaging" will commence, but regardless of the underlying access technology (PDC, GPRS, 1xRTT or 1xEV-DO, - and eventually WCDMA) there is general consensus that multimedia messaging (imaging, if you will) which is an application unto itself and an enabler of other applications, will hasten the larger wireless (voice and multimedia) data tornado. Perhaps you have seen this post from the Qualcomm thread that clips a related article called "Imaging to Change Telecommunications": Message 17633421 The article states: “If the projections of the industry are correct, MMS could dramatically change the way we interact with our phones, the way we communicate with others and could also change the size of our phone bills!” ... In Malaysia, Ovum reckons MMS will start in 2004, when about 17 million messages are expected to be sent in a year, compared to a global market forecast of about 70 billion MMS messages in the same year. The number is expected to grow almost nine times in 2005 in Malaysia .... I also found this slide interesting: images.visualwebcaster.com It shows the three primary wireless data service categories and the 3 additional primary application areas (beyond MMS) for those categories that from Nokia's perspective will be most widely used in the early stages of the transition from a voice centric business model to a voice and data model. Best, - Eric -