Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (171318)	6/9/2002 8:09:53 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

how about Barton Biggs latest missive calling for Dow 2000 and talking of gold and guns? you sure it was barton biggs? it was just a week ago he said we were near a bottom.

To: NOW who wrote (171318)	6/9/2002 6:20:28 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 436258

to be honest I haven't followed enough of the folks for long enough to know if they are any good as contrarian indicators. I simply think 1) There are good fundamental reasons to believe the indices are going considerably lower from here -- historic norms of dividends being the primary one. Second, the state of the economy and the lack of a foundation for a return to profitability -- recent boasted improvements are nothing but relflex from large writeoffs taken earlier and inventory correction. 2) Overindebtedness has two solutions: Inflation and or debt writeoffs. Solution will probably be a combo of both if government is lucky -- if not we sink into deep recession for years. neither of these outcomes supports higher stock prices. Lose-lose. For the shorter term I'd rather look at the most apparent measures of investor sentiment -- what are folks doing with their money. Vols spike, but then turned down rapidly on Fri. Equity P/C remain quite low given we are near those sept lows. No real high negative tics. This is enough for me intermediate term to stay short until I am proven wrong. DOW stocke will be creamed at some pt ... even with them changing the names to protect the innocent. <g> This month?? How should I know ... but I would expect this year.