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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mannie who wrote (328)	6/10/2002 10:15:05 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

simply oversold rally off wellperceived support lines that is all I can see Naz 1500 should generate kneejerk cautious buying until Fed GreenSnot buys S&P itself I think we are witnessing the anatomy of a slowmo breakdown it will contain several attempts to rally the most interesting opinion I have heard lately is that the economy might pick up and continue its tepid growth, and profits might return in lackluster form BUT stocks might not recover too much overvaluation... my near zero RealRateReturn note too much corruption... what is this week's crime story? too much distrust... whose earnings are suspect next? too much risk in the market... why bother? even golds are taking some hits now Apex under 15 (SIL) PanAm Silver in mid-7's (PAAS) I like these silvers, and liking PAAS more than SIL lately closer to actual production to exploit higher coming silver prices it is dangerous out there, jim

To: Mannie who wrote (328)	6/11/2002 11:29:47 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Leeb of "Personal Finance" now on gold bandwagon this is significant to me, since he is a solid market maven he sees illusory productivity signals he sees gold in ascending pattern here is a bunch of bullets from his biweekly gold sector index is rising fast, major stock averages down gold resembling 1970's and early 1980's signals a return into hard assets generally including other real assets like oil, gas precious metals are only commodity with sharp supply constraints upcoming productivity is OVERSTATED and giving falsely encouraging signals to stock investors gold rises when productivity is NOT in the cards he sees inverse correlation between productivity and gold price inflation is UNDERSTATED, via qualitative improvements which are distorting the productivity measurements e.g. computing power, transaction flow, expensive drugs (thus CPI is really higher as result of these HEDONICS) infers from gold that actual CPI is 2% higher than stated based upon when gold began its rise gold should continue to rally even at current stated CPI's energy prices should resume higher trend when CPI rises steadily over time, gold will then take off but now, gold rise is telling US Govt: "you are wrong low" world gold used to be 5x the S&P mktcap in 1980 now world gold is 1/5-th of the S&P simple math calls for big lifts if gold peaks again he reco's: Anadarko (APC) AngloGold (AU) -- no mention of SA risk Apex Silver (SIL) Newmont Gold (NEM) NA Palladium (PAL) just one man's opinion, but this guy is sharp this past autumn, he loved oil/gas sector in Feb2000, he urged total exit from Nazdaq tech stocks / jim