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To: reaper who wrote (41401)	6/10/2002 10:24:42 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 209892

All of the conventional wisdom that is not based on long cycles is most dangerous here, when a market is turning from bull to bear. As an example, I shake my head when I read anything like "During the last 20 years, the market has usually ________." They just don't understand that they are really saying "During the most persistent impulsive bull leg of all-time, the market has usually ________." Years from now, we'll begin to see other other, equally foolish, conventional wisdom along the lines of "During the last 8 years, the market has usually ________."

To: reaper who wrote (41401)	6/10/2002 10:27:02 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

reaper, If I remember correctly, all the Rydex index funds need to be inverted 2-1 to get a significant bottom, so we may have more coming in the other funds anyway. The other factor is how quick they are to buy any bounce; the tinder for rallies could run out quickly if dumb money jumps in en masse. Rydex does seem to have become less predictive this year, that or J.T. has lost it, because he's been bullish since February. We've had a strong downtrend since September 2000, so I'm not sure why the quality of the Rydex indicator would deteriorate just this year, but it sure seems to have done just that. It's taken a long time to get to the 'recognition' phase, if that's what's going on. Rydex works very well for the XAU still, by the way. A 25% jump in Rydex XAU assets marked the exact top so far.