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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (59774)	6/10/2002 3:21:09 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77399

Hi mind, If the large cap tech grows 9% a year till 2009, that's great for me. However, what I wanted to say is that if it grows 3% for the next 30 years, I should also be able to retire in very good shape. Too many people I know are betting on a high double digit return for the next 20 or so years from the market, and their spending habits are based on the unrealistic scenario. That's why I am concerned that the worst days are ahead for us. Sure, the NAZ has corrected tremendously in the last 2 years. The S&P is down about 31-32% from all time high. The DOW, obviously the main index that the Fed and the government needs to support, is down about 17-18%. That's not a tremendous correction for those who believe that the index should be around 6-7k level. I checked the institutional buying activity on the DOW components in the 4th quarter of 01(they showed at least 100 million shares purchase for each DOW stock, the NAZ stocks showed a mixed signal) and it was obvious to me that the government used a large chunk of the 280 billion green cash they printed to buy these stocks. I have the feeling that the PPT is again inflating the market by maintaining DOW at an unsustainable high level. And like I mentioned earlier, the government's obsession in manipulating the free market and the economic cycle will make all of us pay dearly down the road. I am also very skeptical about the common theory that the boomers will pop up the market until 09 and we should all expect a great bull market run in the next 4-5 years. When the majority has the market figured out, I guess that the outcome usually defies the great expectations. That's why I acutally suggested investors to strongly short NAZ when the Fed began to lower the rate at the beginning of 01 (it worked in the past, and it has to work this time around, right?). And my prediction 22 months ago (when it was at 3000 or so) that NAZ would come down to 1500 level within a year was right on the $. Now I see a weak dollar which should get weaker down the road. This surely does not bode well for US stock market and will put pressure on Fed to raise rates. I also strongly suspect that the abuse of accounting powers by corporations might have contributed to at least 20% of the earnings reported by S&P in the past 5 years or so (there are twoo many witched out there needed to be hunted and executed). And finally, the true economic growth will never again happen in a hostile, intense global environment. Never. good luck, larry!