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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (12646)	6/11/2002 12:41:19 AM
From: lifeisgood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

In summary, it is highly inconceivable that the NYSE members and Specialists are wrong at the same time and the public is right in placing bets on the next major move in the market. The MELT-UP is drawing nigh just as the dark gives way to the light. On the other hand... Company insiders are selling at levels never seen before. Maybe they too are foolish to sell their stock but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt. They just might possibly know more about their companys' prospects than the still-prevelant buy-the-dip dips. best... LIG

To: J.T. who wrote (12646)	6/11/2002 6:45:37 AM
From: nsumir81	Respond to of 19219

Analogies of upside and downside with darkness and light.. The market is a pricing mechanism supposedly about the earnings and HEALTH of corporations. About balance sheets that hopefully can be read. About how capital is used. And of course, game playing each day. The same folks who took things up have taken things down, I bet. (even "da boyz" whoever they are, are big shorters and are still doing it/holding on to their positions, I betcha regardless of what numbers one comes up with) So much for looking and seeing the dark and the light in the market (of all the places). How about realism and ignorance (as in ignoring realism) instead ? I guess they don't call it Cashin' In (both ways) for nothing, I guess. jmo, of course. P.S. On the other hand, there is probably a lot of indiscriminate late to the party shorting going on. And you may get your huge rally. Of course, fear of missing the bottom is also not good. If this were truly going to be a bull market, you have plenty of time. forbes.com Clipped Hedges James Grant, 06.10.02, 12:00 AM ET When things like hedge funds acquire a mass-market following, a disaster of some kind is just around the corner. Carrefour last month disclosed its plans to sell hedge funds in French supermarkets. "We want to democratize the hedge-fund business," Thierry Gosset, the administrative director for financial services of the world's second-largest retailer, told Bloomberg News. "We aim to achieve the necessary critical mass by attracting many small investors." Minimum investment: the equivalent of $900. There is only one place in which a conscientious grocer would display an assortment of hedged investment products: the perishables case. Like a head of lettuce, a leveraged investment partnership wilts easily. In all times and all markets, excess is a leading indicator of peril. In the breakneck proliferation of hedge funds, excess is turning into absurdity. According to The New York Times, the worldwide population of hedge funds is approaching 6,000. With the help of $144 billion in new money, assets climbed 38% last year, to $563 billion. The exact nature of the risk posed by the rapid placement of these hundreds of billions of supposedly sophisticated dollars will be revealed, as usual, too late (see FORBES GLOBAL, Aug. 6, 2001). Even before the inevitable pileup, however, we can perceive the outlines of trouble. Ostensibly, hedge funds are hedged. Most certainly, they are leveraged. The risk lies in the debt--and the collective inexperience of the managers and investors. A half-century ago Alfred Winslow Jones, an ambitious former financial writer, had an idea. He would invest $100 in the stock market. He would borrow $30 and invest that, too. To mitigate the risk of the extra $30 of long exposure, he would sell short $30 of stock (that is, sell borrowed shares with the expectation of buying them later, possibly at a lower price). He would, as the phrase went, be "short against the increment." If his stock selection was good, Jones reasoned, he would be more than fully invested. But to be on the safe side, he would hedge. He called his fund a "hedged" fund. It is telling that, down through the years, the final consonant has gone missing. Which brings us to Jones' progeny. No doubt hundreds, even thousands, of these offspring are faithful to the founder's vision, but with complete certainty, we know that hundreds, even thousands, are not. We know something else. Not even the progenitor flawlessly implemented the A.W. Jones & Co. investment model. So bruising was the downturn of the stock market in 1969ç0 that Jones himself considered calling it quits. Jones' previous success did not go unnoticed. Many tried to emulate him, not forgetting the part about taking on some margin debt. By 1977 Institutional Investor asked where all the funds had gone. "Quite simply," the magazine answered, "what was larger than life on the upside was magnified on the downside, too--despite the apparent ‘hedge' concept that was supposed to enable them to profit on their short positions. Performance fees, in an era of nonperformance, dried up." Nonperformance today is almost preordained. Hedge-fund promoters promise to be leveraged, to be hedged, to be "market neutral," to be short, to be long. The trouble is that there isn't enough ice water to fill the veins of all the fresh, young hedgies. "He was all nerve and no nerves," it was said of a certain speculator a century ago. But for those with the conventional wiring of the nervous system, nothing is quite like short-selling. Have you ever tried selling short and then tried to sleep? For most people, the two activities are incompatible. That's because the potential loss on a short sale is unlimited. Rallies in bear markets are notoriously violent and can be made even more explosive by the mushrooming growth of leveraged investment partnerships. On days such as May 8, when the Nasdaq composite rose 7.8%, you could almost feel the sweat beading up on the brows of thousands of novice fund managers. In April short interest on the New York Stock Exchange reached a record high 6.8 billion shares, up 3% from March. The rise was reportedly driven by hedge funds. And although the absolute volume of short sales is touching a record high, the confidence level of the short-sellers must be near a record low. It is an open secret among seasoned bears that only a small fraction of short sales these days are the result of rigorous and original securities analysis. Nowadays more and more shares are sold for no better reason than that "the market is going down." Democratize the hedge-fund business? Sure, and as long as we're at it, let's democratize the New York Philharmonic. We'll all play first horn. James Grant is the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Find past columns at www.forbes.com/grant.

To: J.T. who wrote (12646)	6/12/2002 12:49:06 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Tuesday, June 11th, 2002: ************* Money Market 1.734 BILLIONBULLISH Double Overbought ************* Regular Series: (100% Correlation to Index (Nova 150%)) SPX Long - NOVA 208.9 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold SPX Short- URSA 337.9 MillionBULLISH Double Overbought NDX Long - OTC 566.6 MillionBULLISH Triple Oversold Lowest Close Since October 1998 NDX Short- ARKTOS 154.3 MillionBULLISH Double Overbought ********** Dynamic Series: (200% correlation to Index) SPX Long - TITAN 83.7 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold SPX Short- TEMPEST 243.2 MillionBULLISH Double Overbought At All Time Highs NDX Long - VELOCITY 130.7 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold NDX Short- VENTURE 228.6 MillionBULLISH Double Overbought Sector Funds: XAU Precious Metals 72.8 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold XOI Energy 24.0 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold OSX Energy Services 23.6 MillionBULLISH Quadruple Oversold BKX Banking 36.3 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold BTK Biotech 129.9 MillionBULLISH Quadruple Oversold New 3 1/2 Year Low RUT 2000 - MIKROS 32.2 MillionBULLISH Quadruple Oversold RLX Retail 21.7 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold Telecommunications 5.2 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold SOX Electronics 45.8 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold ***************************************** The DOW has gone back to test the 21 day 3 1/2% exponential trading band. This band was battle tested only a few days ago and is getting tested again. It survived the last test and I believe it will survive this test. Hold serve and reverse back up. All major indices are right above/at or below double oversold levels on the 5 day RSI. The XAU closed below double oversold yesterday and reversed and screamed higher today and is now back above oversold levels. SPX closed right below my death row support band SPX 1,016 -1,018 to close at SPX 1,013.60. I will consider this a one day false break as they sold em with reckless abandon get out at any price into the bell. Like September 21, 2001, this will prove to go down as one of the great bottom tests before the massive launch begins. I was buried alive in a hole in Rydex the fall of 2001 and still managed to make money by year-end. Now I am in the same predicament let's see if year end results finish positive again. Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC Dynamic Series: 100% SPX Long TITAN Best Regards, J.T. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX It seems like only yesterday a comparison to September 21, 2001. Rydex Total Assets Update for Friday, September 21st, 2001: Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 164.6 MillionBULLISH New 4 + year low SPX Short- URSA 296.0 MillionBULLISH Inversion NDX Long - OTC 686.9 MillionBULLISH - Near 3 Yr LOW NDX Short- Arktos 111.8 MillionBULLISH XAU Precious Metals 91.3 MillionBEARISH New 1.5 Year High Banking 17.4 MillionBULLISH - New 1 year low Biotech 231.4 MillionBULLISH - New 2 year low Money Market 1.609 BILLIONBULLISH Double Oversold *************************************** Dynamic Series (200% correlation to Index) SPX Long - TITAN 38.0 MillionBULLISH - Inversion SPX Short- TEMPEST 113.0 MillionBULLISH - ALL TIME HIGH NDX Long - VELOCITY 104.7 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 111.0 MillionBULLISH - ALL TIME HIGH ******************************************* Sometimes, no matter how Bullish sentiment numbers may look,markets have a way of making new history.Markets can humble anyone at any given time. I ate my humble pie everday this week. The counter-trend melt-up begins next week. ******************************************************* T.G.I.F.: Worst week since '33 Free fall, recovery define day filled with uncertainty By Kathy Bergen Tribune staff reporter September 22, 2001 Nervous investors sent stocks on another bumpy descent Friday, capping the worst week on Wall Street since the Great Depression. The markets alternated between virtual free fall and sharp recovery Friday as fears of a prolonged war and a plunge into recession led to the fourth big sell-off in five days. Since Wall Street's emotional reopening Monday in the wake of last week's terrorist attacks, the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average has posted its biggest single-day and weekly point losses ever as investors tried to come to grips with the dramatic changes in the political and economic landscape. For the week, the Dow plunged nearly 1,370 points, or 14.3 percent. The point drop far surpassed the 861.21 record set the week ending March 16, and the percentage drop was the biggest since July 1933. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index, already battered this year, lost another 16 percent this week, topped off by Friday's drop of 47.74 points, or 3.2 percent, to 1423.19. "It's been like the Depression, World War II and the stock market crash in 1987--that's how bad it's been," said Anthony Kolton, president of Markethistory.com in Chicago. In fact, in most cases, it was worse. Markethistory.com said this week's fall surpassed several other notable drops, including 14.2 percent in May 1940, when Europe fell to Adolf Hitler; 13.5 percent in early November 1929, in the wake of the Oct. 29 crash; and 13.2 percent the week of the October 1987 crash. For the post-World War II generations, "this probably was the worst week of our lives, emotionally and financially," said investment adviser and author Peter J. Tanous, president of Lynx Investment Advisory in Washington, D.C. Hanging over the market was uncertainty about what the U.S. would do in response to last week's terrorist attacks and growing apprehension about the economy as the drumbeat of corporate layoffs and earnings warnings continued. Adding to selling pressure were the quarterly expiration of index futures and index and stock options, known as triple witching, and traders' unwillingness to hold positions over the weekend in an uncertain time, said Marshall Front, chairman of Front Barnett Associates in Chicago. "This overwhelmed the market, and the market fell back," he said. After taking a 313-point fall in the opening minutes of trading, the Dow surged to a gain of more than 50 points in just over half an hour after General Electric issued an upbeat earnings outlook. But, almost inevitably, it fell back again. For the day, the Dow fell 140.40 points, to 8235.81, a loss of 1.7 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 18.74 points, or 1.9 percent, to 965.80, pushing its loss for the week to 11.6 percent. For the year, the Nasdaq is down 42.4 percent, the Dow is down 23.6 percent and the S&P is off 26.8 percent. Volume was extremely heavy Friday, with more than 2.3 billion shares traded at the New York Stock Exchange, second only to the record 2.36 billion shares traded on Monday. In fact, Monday, Wednesday and Friday of this week were the busiest days in NYSE history. "In a way, this is a return to rationality," said veteran market historian and author Peter Bernstein, a New York-based consultant to institutional investors. "Until this week, we were in a bear market that thought it was a bull market ... and what's happening now, as awful as it appears, is a waking up to the reality that the economy is in trouble and stocks were priced too high." Further decline possible Some observers assert that price-to-earnings ratios are still greater than historical norms, and said major indexes could drop much more than they have already. But others caution against trying to guess at a bottom. "Trying to guess a support level in a down market is a bit like playing volleyball on the Dan Ryan," said Ralph Wanger, chief investment officer of Liberty Wanger Asset Management in Chicago. "It's sporty, but it's not safe." Some observers see reasons for optimism. An easing of the money supply by central banks around the world, spending plans by the U.S. government and strength in the U.S. banking system are all positives, Bernstein said. `Ripe for recovery' As well, "when you see this much bearishness, typically the market is ripe for recovery," Front said. "But you need a catalyst, and it's difficult to know what that will be." Eventually, "people will decide to go back to normal life," Wanger said. "In a few months, people will decide they really would like to take the kids to Disney World." Amid the gloom Friday, Chicago-based Heller Financial Inc. gained $2.06, or 4.1 percent, to $51.90, after new General Electric Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt expressed confidence that GE's plans to buy Heller would succeed. Copyright © 2001, Chicago Tribune Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN Best Regards, J.T.