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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnM who wrote (32127)	6/12/2002 4:22:54 PM
From: Win Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Life After Arafat nytimes.com Elsewhere on the polling front, we have this nice little tunnel at the end of the tunnel story from the Sunday Times. Personally, I'm a little vague how after Israel had this big operation to destroy "the terrorist infrastructure", which seemed to consist almost entirely of all known PA facilities, Arafat is supposed to be equipped to do anything at all. Apparently I'm not the only one wondering that: But whatever responsibility Mr. Arafat bears for fomenting the violence that now dominates his society, there is a real question whether he now has the power to stop it. One senior European diplomat, who deals frequently with both Palestinians and Israelis, believes he does not. "Not even close." he said. "Maybe a year ago he had it, possibly. Today, absolutely not." Back to the polls, this bit of cheery news. "I don't believe he has much power," said Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. Mr. Shikaki's polls chart a mounting disillusion with Mr. Arafat and the Palestinian Authority since a high point of Oslo optimism in 1996. A central tenet of the Oslo agreement was that a Palestinian security force would protect Israelis from Palestinians, and back then, the Preventive Security Force chiefs — Jibril Rajoub on the West Bank and Mohammed Dahlan in Gaza — locked up Islamic fundamentalists wholesale. There was no public support for suicide bombing because hopes were high for a Palestinian state in the near term. Israelis still want the P.L.O. to help ensure their security, but in the face of current conditions, it seems a preposterous idea. In Dr. Shikaki's latest poll, taken late last month, Mr. Arafat had only a 35 percent approval rating. Ninety-one percent supported fundamental change in the Palestinian Authority, 95 percent wanted the ministers dismissed and 83 percent believed corruption existed. And while 52 percent supported suicide bombing inside Israel, 86 percent opposed arresting the bombers. The "democracy in Palestine" offshoot of the "democracy in Iraq" crowd may or may not want to contemplate that last figure. Or maybe "democracy" in that case is a codeword for a CIA-installed puppet, except how such an installation would be seen as something other than a collaborationist with the occupiers is a conundrum. One last little bit of cheer from the conclusion: Last week, meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority's Jenin governor, Azzaldin Manasra, resigned. Associates told Palestinian journalists that "the intifada activists from Islamic Jihad and the other movements are in control and no senior Palestinian official dares go there." In fact, Mr. Arafat's Palestinian Authority functionaries have been afraid to venture into Jenin for some time. A Western diplomat painted a bleak picture. "They are laughing at him," he said of the Palestinian attitude to Mr. Arafat, "because he has absolutely no authority. His security apparatus is a joke. Nobody in a uniform did anything. It's all Tanzim, Hamas, Islamic Jihad. The fighters in Jenin fought very bravely. It's all street corner guys, it's gangland."