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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sammaster who wrote (6541)	6/11/2002 8:27:53 PM
From: tom pope	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

I think Peter already mentioned the company in a recent post, but CRA should on anybody's short list. Whatever one thinks of its business model (and CRA itself may have indicated today that it needs rethinking) the balance sheet is a thing of beauty. The income statement, of course is another matter. (I own a little bit, bought two weeks or so ago, and currently under water.)

To: sammaster who wrote (6541)	6/12/2002 9:23:19 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

I've been at this investing game for nearly thirty years and this group looks like the best valuation bargain I've ever seen despite the pain of riding down this last leg. Here's my current notes and portfolio (except LGND still anticipating a break to 10 area where it's back up the truck time). ICOS: 60.00m shares out @ 18.35= MC (market cap) 1.101b -Net Working Cap (NWC) of 433m = Technology Value: 668m plant (p): 20m Phase III: Cialis for erectile dysfunction, Pafase for severe sepsis, Sifaxsetan for hypertension. Full plate of phase I's. AVAN: 58.0m out @ 1.01= MC 59m - 38 NWC= 21m TV III: rotavirius vaccine with GLX III: cholera vaccine II: cholestral vaccine also involved with defense dept anti-terrorist vaccine work CEGE: 35.6 out @ 12.56= MC 447m - 191 NWC = 256m TV, p: 55m II: GVAX for about six cancers, CG for three cancers, full preclinical slate INSM: 32.9 out @ 1.89= MC 62- 43m NWC = 19 TV II: type 2 diabetes, II: polycystic ovary syndrome, II: diabetes, insulin control CRXA: 41.1 out @ 5.55= MC 228m - 28 NWC= 200m TV p: 40m III- Bexxar and 9 other II and III prospects. IMGN: 39.8 out @ 3.61= MC 144m - 138 NWC= 6m TV, p: 5 TAP (antibody) technology Pretty decent technology for a net-net: biz.yahoo.com ISIS: 51.8 out @ 7.80= MC 404- 170 NWC= 234 TV p: 36 big pipeline: two in III, seven in II, 4 in pre-clinical MAXM: 23.85 out @ 3.97= 94 MC - 136 WC= neg. 42 TV (a "net net" as market is giving investor's the tech for zero, and throwing 42m cash for free) III: cephlene - melonomia, II: hep C, II: renal cell, III: leukemia RZYM: 20.0 out @ 1.00= 20 MC - 14 MWC= 6 TV, p: 4 MDCO: 34.6 out @ 9.00= 312 MC - 54 NWC= 258 TV has an approved cardiology drug called Angiomax, that is being marketed. Anticipated 2002 rev: 40m, possible 200m plus target. IDEV: 46.5 out @ 1.22= 57 -50= 7 TV PFE drops pagoclone in III. McCamant feels could still be used for smaller panic disorder market. Still have PRO 2000 for STD prevention, in III citicoline for stroke. HGSI: 128.3 out @ 13.00= MC 1.668b- 1.203 NWC= 465 TV, p: 101 large early stage clinical effort, expect to send several a year into trials. CRGN: 48.8 out @ 5.83= MC 285 - 318 NWC= neg. 33 TV early stage clinical effort with a number of key pharma partners (Bayer) paying for research. MLNM 281.9 out @ 11.39=3.210b-1.088 NWC= 2.122b TV p:208 300 rev: 88% PM, Large pipeline NPSP 30.2 @ 15 = 453- 217 NWC= 236 TV III: osteoporosis ALX-1-ii complete rights 750m potential III HPT AMG-73 hyper parathyroid;AMGN IIb short bowel syndrome Iib ALX-0600 100% LGND: 75.45 out @ 12.86= 970- 37 NWC= 933 TV p:10 Rev 100m 80% PM , 120 op breakeven would cover RD, GA 4 approved cancer drugs and just approved pain killer Morphelon III- lasofoxfene 6% roy PFE osteoporosis 8 in pipeline II PFE, AHP, LLY GSK roy. 04 goal 300m plus rev. ELN: 322.5 out @ 7.00= 2.257b + 62= 2.319 TV + then adjust back down for what one thinks the QSPE’s are worth. 2.0b rev. 500 CF Key dev. Products: III Antegren BGEN 04-05, Zicontide-severe pain