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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taut Knot who wrote (11398)	6/13/2002 1:25:06 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11555

I wish I knew. Biotech is likely to bottom out by this fall. I think we are seeing a near term bottom in the NASDAQ and SOX. Recently the market hasn't been so much effected by bad news or it has been isolated to the particular stocks effected and there has been some favorable news, such as NSM, MOT. I expect some firming up of the commodity component companies, such as passives and commodity semis except for memory. I think that because these companies will be driven by consumer markets, inventory replenishment and the fact that they are already at commodity pricing and not subject as much to pricing pressure as the higher end semis. My guess is that we see bottoming action, rocky up and down trading, for a couple weeks with a rally kicking in sometime around the 4th of July holiday period. This is strictly a guess. II don't know if we will see yet lower prices later in the summer or that will be the end of the bear. There are arguments that some valuations are still quite high given that the critical telecommunications market is several months away from a robust recovery and the dollar is devaluating and foreign investors might continue to flee U.S. based equities. But at some point the perception is bound to shift to an outlook for the future. Whether that future justifies prices still pegged at high multiples is still a guess . . . I have my doubts that the semi sector will soar for a prolonged period during the next several quarters.

To: Taut Knot who wrote (11398)	6/19/2002 6:54:54 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11555

We are close to my price target (mid to upper teens). Reality is finally setting in; up to a several year climb up a steep slope to a robust industry recovery. The communications sector is particularly a basket case. Everybody gets killed except the dumb farts at the top who screwed everything up so badly and made off with fortunes in stock options, salaries and bonuses. The U.S. has developed a star mentality when it comes to treating key executives: hire CEOs/CFOs/COOs who promise big, acquire big, spend big, and wrap money around products to grow big fast and everything will be great . . . for a while until it comes to pay back time. Take away corporate governance by putting in closely held, inter-locking boards of directors who's primary function becomes rubber stamping actions taken by swing from the fences managers and accounting firms with as many scruples as you can expect with conflicts of interests from huge consulting contract, and you have a formula for funny business. IDTI remains a very good company, reasonably managed, strategically well positioned . . but still not cheap by any stretch of the imagination compared to historical norms. While not cheap, it should be a buy at some point this summer, maybe soon if we get a few more days like today.