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To: mishedlo who wrote (172033)6/12/2002 1:04:14 AM
From: KeepItSimple  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
but "max pain" changes every day, depending on options activity.

how do you determine which date of options positions to look at when you "confirm" that max pain has been correct?

do you look 3 weeks from expiration? 3 days?

if there is no methodology, the measurement is useless. simply saying max pain works because on the day of expiration the stock price falls between the troughs of puts and calls is bullshit.. that is simply a function of exponential increases in leverage the farther OTM you go in either direction.



To: mishedlo who wrote (172033)6/12/2002 6:14:18 AM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
<Max Pain has worked perfectly every month since November.
In fact it can easily work again.>

Is that statistically significant??

Oh, I see KIS addressed this:

<<if there is no methodology, the measurement is useless. >>

dAK



To: mishedlo who wrote (172033)6/12/2002 8:53:50 AM
From: Gut Trader  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Max Pain is in good company in the book of myths alongside Crashes, Ranges, Big Kahunas and Unicorns.



To: mishedlo who wrote (172033)6/12/2002 9:48:22 AM
From: Gut Trader  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Mish, ever look at the affect of LEAP option positions on the commons around January?



To: mishedlo who wrote (172033)6/12/2002 1:14:34 PM
From: BigMoney  Respond to of 436258
 
looks like they want to start a day early.

my guess is max pain on INTC will be 22-22.5. BWDIK.



To: mishedlo who wrote (172033)6/12/2002 1:32:32 PM
From: BigMoney  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
hmmm. questions, questions.

how can QQQ trade at 31 with MSFT trading at 50 and CSCO trading at 15?

don't they need MSFT and CSCO trading higher than where they are today (54.5 and 15)?