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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (16072)	6/12/2002 3:50:11 PM
From: sat2000	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Richard, I know what it is like to be busy. I agree with you about the first three scenarios. You mentioned two risk scenarios. 1. Brinker gets in early. 2. Brinker gets in late. To that I think it fair to add two more, getting out to early and getting out to late to a long term strategy. The reason I would limit market timing in general and Brinker's brand of market timing in particular to 5% is as follows. The only time I am aware of Brinker making what I will call a compete cycle, fully invested to 100% cash and back to fully invest was from 1987-1991. In that instance he got out to late (near the bottom) and got back in to late (some 25% above the bottom). With that as a track record I see no reason to risk more than 5% of any portfolio. Who knows, he did get out just about right on time in Jan. 2000. He did meet his goal of within 5% of the top. We shall see if he can get back in near the bottom, within 5% would he great. Even if he does he is batting .500. Question is if all the better he can do is bat .500 why pay $185 a year. Your odds are just as good flipping a coin. I think to get some idea if Bob can add value to a portfolio we need to see at least four compete cycles. I am not sure the 2000- present attempt qualifies since he hedged and only got out 60%, later changed to 65%. Who knows it could be the 1987-91 experience has Bob doubting himself and his model? I know I do. Steve Thompson