Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (172066)	6/12/2002 8:11:22 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

find me one with no debt, steady sales growth and trading at book value... LOL

To: LLCF who wrote (172066)	6/12/2002 8:20:15 AM
From: Oblomov	Respond to of 436258

Note that VD's portfolio is below its original level of investment in 1997- the carnage amazes me, and it will get worse before it gets better. But there will be reason for optimism again. I think that having a tech salvage thread is a good idea.

To: LLCF who wrote (172066)	6/12/2002 8:22:05 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 436258

Dak: Good idea, but perhaps a bit "early"?. A few years ago, I did a bit of research on the thirties, austensibly looking for what kinds of stocks did well in that nasty environment (sort of hints as to what I saw coming our way, even back then) and what strategies or public perspectives made them winning stocks. From that amateur effort emerged my current guiding mantra for the descent period, which is "short the stocks that have no earnings and big debt, buy the junior golds with big reserves, and acquire the stocks of companies that will be able to sell their products/services even in bad times." Most intelligent investors use the food and defense industries as defensive situations, and they are of course right to do so, but there are others as well. With respect to buying wrung-out tech (or other) stocks, I am in the camp that thinks most folk will do this far too early in the cycle. This mania has been one of the most extended in history, hence the other side of the pendulum's swing will be equally as large. I will NOT be buying the techs when they become "fairly valued" (even by historic measures) as I expect them to fall much further. When the markets are hated by everybody I know, when we all think it can't possibly go any lower and when there are only a dozen active threads on SI, then I will wait another six months and still probably not buy them, but for a different reason. This decade's wondrous tech company's will be the next decade's commodity producers.... not where I want to be. Even during nasty debt cleansing periods, new technologies emerge. That is where I hope to be buying. Meantime, as the deflationary wave sweeps across the landscape, hopefully, the "do well in bad times" stocks that I acquired before the wave hits, along with my shorts and gold holdings, will see me through to a sunnier climate. One thing I also know is that cash is going to take on heroic power as this bubble gets crushed. You will be able to buy up remarkable assets for peanuts before this thing is over. Best, Earlie