Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (6017)	6/12/2002 10:24:16 AM
From: JakeStraw	Respond to of 6974

Siebel Systems (Nasdaq: SEBL) CFO Kenneth Goldman said Tuesday at the Bear Stearns technology conference that the June quarter was shaping up to be as difficult as the previous period, which CEO Tom Siebel described as one of the worst ever in the IT industry. We are not surprised by these comments and see little reason for spending to improve until corporate profits rebound. However, once spending does pick up, we think Siebel will be one of the software companies that will tear the cover off the ball. With the stock trading below our fair value estimate, we'd be buyers. biz.yahoo.com

To: Boplicity who wrote (6017)	6/12/2002 11:59:08 AM
From: Hardly B. Solipsist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

I know I wasn't asked, but I'm a programmer and I think about this sort of thing off and on. I believe that the software business is fundamentally different than hardware (although they are certainly related). At this point the software business is in its infancy, perhaps only because programming is so poorly understood and sloppily practiced (this certainly contributes to the problem). One thing to think about, to see how much worse the practice of software is than hardware, is to compare how much better hardware has gotten in the past 20 years with how little better software is. (In fact, most of the improvement in software is because there are almost no limitations on how big a program can be now -- often this has made the software worse, but not always.) The software business tends to go in cycles that have to do with some new piece of infrastructure getting adopted and then people thrash around trying to figure out how to use it. The internet was seriously overhyped, and so lots of companies rushed to "get on the net" and now they are realizing that there wasn't much rush, and they haven't digested what they bought (and in a lot of cases it doesn't work very well, so they are struggling with that). However, the internet is a huge change, and it will increase the demand for software tremendously, because it represents an opportunity to automate processes on a global scale. At least until that has occurred (which will take a long time, and possibly forever), the software business won't be mature.

To: Boplicity who wrote (6017)	6/12/2002 5:20:28 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6974

Hey Boplicity! Great to see some old friends here. What I'm looking for is determine if a structural change on macro level has happen in the software sector so as to determine if the sector is experiencing a short term downtrend with the rest of hightech or will the down turn become more lasting like the hardware sector has enter into. By hardware do you mean telecom or PC hardware? PC hardware is a mature business is it not, where telecom is in its infancy and temporarily saturated... if this is what you are asking I think its the latter (the telecom situation) for software- with one extra sour note and that is that the last generation of collaborative internet software (ariba) didn't deliver for customers and cost a bundle so CIOs have a bad taste in their mouth and don't want to deploy new cash, this is temporary though. The prior generation of software- psft,sebl,prgn,the ERPs worked out just fine and did deliver (despite the pain and suffering at implementation). All the startups working on internet collaboration are gone now so its an opportunity for Sebl and others to expand their footprint imo. Contract management is an area like that, new companies were going to do it but they are all gone now. All in all a pretty unprecendented time to invest in software if you pick the leaders who are gaining share and get in low. I like itwo also btw and he has been really clobbered, worse than sebl. Sebl still above his sept lows and most software is lower so I'd pick my entry. Also a new space in supply chain that manugistics created is profit/pricing optimization across your inventory so manu is a favorite of mine, but they don't have the balance sheet for an extended decline. L