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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (12739)	6/12/2002 2:55:53 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

1) Do you know what was the highest short interest ratio was during the bear carnage in 1973? 1974? Do you know the ratio in 1982? Do you know the ratio in 1984 as Joe Granville was screaming crash? Have you compared those ratios to todays short interest ratios? 2) Do you know when the worst Bear market ever in 1929 came to an end and what happened in the next year? What happened, how it happened and why? 3) Do you know what they were talking about in the fall of 1974 and the summer of 1982 before the reversal? 4) Do you know the similarities and differences vs. past Bear markets? 5) Do you know what economic indicators say the market will be significantly higher next year? 6) Do you really know what cognitive dissonance means? 7) Do you care? Best Regards, J.T.

To: Steve Lee who wrote (12739)	6/12/2002 3:26:10 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Off the top of my head 1) Do you know what the average P/S ratio of SP500 stocks is? 21? 2) Do you know what the historical average of that metric is? 17? Not that out of balance considering that the economy looks to be recovering, we are at recession lows in terms of EPS and we are in a stimulative low inflation, low rate environment. You could buy MSFT the company for $257 billion (taking out the $38 billion cash in the bank) and they generate $12 billion in free cashflow. As a business owner that's a 4.5% return on investment with significant room for improvement if business spending ever comes back. 4.5% return on equity is better than bonds and has greater upside. IMO, Dave