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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (78139)	6/12/2002 10:56:19 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 99280

Tip: Personally, I don't see any big changes either, but many days of "down" can frequently be followed by crushingly violent bear market rallies. In my case, the dive for the foxhole was mainly motivated by that worry. I don't think it lasts long, but who knows for sure. I will watch things carefully tomorrow and react accordingly. By the way, in each of the last two bear market rallies, I was (a) out cleanly two days in advance, but got impatient and got back in one day "early" (and suffered for my crummy timing), and (b) was a deer on the railroad track when the train came roaring into the crossing(and required many weeks to repair the damage). Both experiences were not much fun, but the lessons appear to have sunk in a bit. (g) I noted a few weeks ago that there will come a time when trying to duck the rallies will be the wrong thing to do, as one would likely end up with nil exposure if/when a cratering transpires. I think that time is approaching, but since I am always "early", I am building in a fudge factor for its probable arrival. Also, in looking back over most of the short positions taken on over the past 12 months, I would have done just as well if I had been a bit less aggressive in the amount of capital committed (and thus would have experienced less pressure to dump positions quickly). There is a lesson in that situation which I hope I can retain. (g) Best, Earlie

To: yard_man who wrote (78139)	6/12/2002 11:15:20 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Tip, if you like shorting Dow dung, you may want to look at the list of targets max losses on the 30 Dows over the rest of the year : #reply-17578123, from May 11th (updated on that post with the prices on May 11th and last week), just few days before the start of the Nassacre, only two hit the targets so far, few are getting quite close (T, DIS for instance). Zeev

To: yard_man who wrote (78139)	6/13/2002 4:28:24 AM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Yeah, swing trading is out. Gold too. I came within a hair's breadth of adding this afternoon. I say sell it and short it a bit.