COT Data update from Optioninvestor.Com..
The COT data delivered a few surprises this weekend and I think we got some good correlation between the bullish percent data in the NASDAQ and the goings on in the futures market. Nasdaq commercial interests reached their most BULLISH reading in over a year this past week, while the small traders reached their most BEARISH reading in over a year. The divergence into extremes is usually what takes place around key turning points in the particular market. This development in light of the bullish percent data gives the upside good probability in the coming weeks for Nasdaq-100 stocks.
Commitments Of Traders Report: 06/11/02
Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.
Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.
S&P 500
S&P commercials continued to position less bearish in the last
week by adding more longs than shorts. Small traders went in the
opposite direction by reducing their net bullish position by about
4,000 contracts.
Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI
05/28/02 362,607 442,845 (80,238) (9.9%)
06/04/02 369,298 440,027 (70,729) (8.6%)
06/11/02 388,751 457,018 (68,267) (8.1%)
Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/6/01
Most bullish reading of the year: ( 36,481) - 10/16/01
Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI
05/28/02 172,313 57,803 114,510 49.8%
06/04/02 167,713 58,885 108,828 48.0%
06/11/02 174,357 69,464 104,893 43.0%
Most bearish reading of the year: 36,513 - 5/01/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02
NASDAQ-100
Nasdaq commercials reached a second consecutive yearly high
in bullishness!!! Small traders reached their most
bearish position in over a year!!!
Commercials Long Short Net % of OI
05/28/02 49,669 44,900 4,769 5.0%
06/04/02 47,875 39,100 8,775 9.3%
06/11/02 45,946 36,878 9,068 10.9%
Most bearish reading of the year: (15,521) - 3/13/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/01
Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI
05/28/02 12,562 16,969 (4,407) 14.9%
06/04/02 12,162 21,420 (9,258) 27.2%
06/11/02 14,561 25,330 (10,769) 27.0%
Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 8,460 - 3/13/01
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
Dow commercials continued to ease out of their net bullish
position last week. The group added a few more shorts, and
dropped a few longs. Small traders were flat for the week.
Commercials Long Short Net % of OI
05/28/02 20,289 15,513 4,776 13.3%
06/04/02 20,564 16,169 4,395 11.0%
06/11/02 20,369 17,172 3,197 8.5%
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01
Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI
05/28/02 5,709 9,180 (3,471) (23.3%)
06/04/02 7,114 9,639 (2,525) (14.7%)
06/11/02 7,500 9,925 (2,425) (13.9%)
Most bearish reading of the year: (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 1,909 - 1/16/01 |
