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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (32277)	6/13/2002 6:57:35 PM
From: Win Smith	Respond to of 281500

This is sort of silly. Saudi Arabia is allied with neither Iraq or Syria, and is in fact rather hostile to both countries. I have no idea how hypothetical regime changes in either place would "isolate" the Saudis. Then there's the problem that if you believe the "Arab mind" theory flogged so often around here, real democratic regimes aren't likely to be an improvement anywhere. CIA hand-picked "democratic" puppets are another story, but "Arab minds" aren't likely to take kindly to them either. Elsewhere in the region, there was this not totally appetizing story about Kuwait, apparently not the most stable or reliable of allies either, despite the Gulf War. Infirmity of Its Senior Sheiks Leaves Kuwait Stagnating nytimes.com But Washington's support for Israel swung the pendulum back. Kuwaitis have no great love for the Palestinian leadership, which backed Iraq during the invasion, but the issue of control of Jerusalem grates. Some prayer leaders began denouncing Jews and Christians as the enemy during weekly Friday sermons. When the religious affairs minister ordered a halt, he was attacked as trying to override the Koranic verses that condone prayers against those who have wronged Muslims. The two sides compromised in late May, with the prayer leaders now singling out specific American officials. "They were against cursing all Jews and Christians," said Abdel Razak al-Shayegi, the spokesman for one Islamic organization and a leader of Friday Prayers. "But now I can say, `God punish Bush, God punish Rumsfeld, God punish Rice.' That is better because they are the ones practicing injustice against us."

To: paul_philp who wrote (32277)	6/13/2002 9:19:07 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 281500

Syria and Iraq both spawned from the same Baathist movement... They are rivals, but Syria recognizes if Iraq's Baathist party is removed, it sets a nasty precedent for their own fall. Syria is a nation of Sunnis ruled by a minority Alawite elite. The Alawites are more closely linked to Shi'ism, hence the close relationship with Iran. The US will take care of Iraq, the Israelis will take care of the Syrians. Israel has established a close military relationship with Turkey, thus placing Syria in a "vice". Btw, there was a rumour from Debka about the Saudis massing armored forces on the Jordanian border. I mentioned this the other day to "someone" who is in a "position to know" and he nodded his head (didn't say yes.. just nodded his head)... I also laid out my theory about the Hashemites eventually replacing the Saudis and he found that to be an interesting scenario that he had not contemplated before. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the scenario makes a great deal of sense. "Moderating" the Saudis won't work. They are illegitimate rulers, only propped up by the Wahhabis who need them for political cover in order to carry out their "jihad" and anti-western strategy. The Hashemites have the historical legitimacy and would definitely be seen as far less corrupt than the Saudi royal family. They would also likely be far more moderate and more tolerant of other "flavors" of Islam, as well as Western ideas. They can also trace their lineage back over a thousand years to Muhammed himself. It is this fanatical extremism on the part of the Wahabbis which is where the real threat is. Control over the holy cities of Islam by a moderate Islamic regime with legitimacy in the eyes of the majority of Muslims. Hawk