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To: DanZ who wrote (40619)	6/14/2002 6:23:11 AM
From: Joe Stocks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

>>>I had a hard time getting a straight answer out of him as well. In essense, the decision that he faces is exactly the same as what stock owners face, or should be looking at.<<< Dan, I think I have more than straight out in my answers. I think the problem is is that you can't stand the truth. The hypothetical using my business is ridiculus. If my business had dropped in half, I was losing money anf firing employess right and left I doubt I could sell my business for book value. I would have few buyers just like GLW. Now if by profits were increasing and I was expanding, buyers would be lining up. As far as my Sy Harding reference, That represented 47 years of market seasonal history through good times and bad. You say, "The market has a way of balancing out over a long period of time, so it is possible that over the next 50 years, the trend identified in that book will be completely reversed." Dan, my man, you have a closed mine my friend! Joe

To: DanZ who wrote (40619)	6/14/2002 8:02:23 AM
From: Kelvin Taylor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

Dan, Your statement, "My point about going back further than one year is that one year does not establish a trend" is correct. One can't make a statistical extrapolation from data back only one year. However, I do think similar conditions are present now as last year. Companies continue to warn, reluctance for future guidance, lack of confidence in the market as a whole, lack of buyers, the list goes on. And the seasonality is not conductive for the market to power substantiality higher. Perhaps we are close to a bottom. That will only be seen the “rearview mirror”, but we could certainly be in a very narrow range where stock prices move very little over the next few months. I see no reason to be 90% invested in stocks on the long side. This is what I want to see: 1) companies Upping guidance 2) corporation spending budgets increasing 3) market reacts to good economic news with conviction 4) Larry shorts stocks and stays bearish 5) Sue comes back and posts on a regular basis(w/ woooo hooos) 6) Ed goes from mostly cash to 50%+ stocks(long) 7) Joe decides short huge positions in GLW, ORCL, CSCO 8) Ron decides to hold his SUNW more than 15 minutes 9) SMTC goes back to $40 10) KM is offering “green light” specials