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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (3516)	6/14/2002 2:29:40 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

Not to state the obvious or anything... but many of us were whipsawed into a mauling during anyone one of a number of these 'opportunistic' buy zones over the past couple of months. While many of the equips are reasonably priced on a price/sales (p/s) basis, the large-cap 'leaders' are unbelievably overvalued (http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7079976&tid=klic&sid=7079976&mid=33965) and this fact alone is likely to drag the sector down for a considerable fraction of the remainder of 2002. There is neither sustained nor compelling news emerging from the IC sector to lend credence to a belief that cap spending will resume anytime in the near future. In fact, the strength of the argument that the opposite may hold is gaining strength with each passing day. You say, 'These dark times are time of opportunity - out of them come strong rallies as those who have been with the trend - hold on too long.' While the sentence is disjointed, the final phrase ('hold on too long) rings true from my experience as an investor in KLIC: we ALWAYS hold on too long and then own a stock that is 1/2 its value of a month ago. And then we stare at the charts and wait for the supposedly inevitable return of the upcycle. We already have the data to show that we're far past the 'normal' point of return for the rebound, that we've already entered into another downslide, and that there's a strong likelihood, IMO, that a recovery to the levels found in 2000 is many, many years away. Sincerely, Scott 'Happy Days' Jiminez