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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Bull Market. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (694)	6/17/2002 12:33:25 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1750

Averaged in around 997.00 Looks good so far... <smile> Sir Templelton may have cooked up one possible scenarios, but basically he's wrong. I disagree with the assumption that just because we had 20 years of markets with higher highs that we MUST have 10 years of lower lows. Furthermore, I disagree that the crash in the NASDAQ equities is equal with the 1929 crash. That's absurd.... I don't see any bread lines or bank closings. The exchanges are entirely different animals and entirely different atmospheres to trade in.... the number of stocks trading, the mutual fund industry, the various kinds of trading vehicles..., coupled with the parabolic number of participants, and the electronic age..., international interconnectedness..., etc.... just bares no resemblance to 1929 or any other age prior to when the DJIA was at 2000.... much less 1000 or 100. I do not believe these world markets will crash without an outside stimulant. But there are certainly enough around to warrent being very careful. FWIW... My scenario is a protracted and flat trading range between the Sept 10th close and the highs put in early 2000, which will go on as long as we are at war, and as the investment psychology digests the excess of the 90's... ie: Enron, Tyco, etc. A lot of money can be made by those who know how to trade. Dividends will be King...(measure of quality and honesty), utilities that sell the good stuff are in (dividends), and small to midsize companies are in...! Forget about whatever was hot during the 80-90's, and the psychological brain type that drove those markets.....! Look into those companies small to mid that make something, sell it for a profit and will be the leaders in 2005. There's a new psychology at work.