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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (79259)	6/14/2002 6:32:52 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Respond to of 99280

I have been noticing a lot of independent computer distributors going under or being swallowed up by overseas manufacturing entities which is tantamount to them having any sales presence in U.S. I see the process of writing off debts starting in this cycle of recession. NVDA will not be immune. Computer component suppliers didn't get away scot free and some did go under. I am assuming that they will lose approx. 6-8 M video chipsets sales per month as 845GL and 845G make up the bulk of Dell HP and other Intel shop sales in 2nd half of this year. I am basing this number on previous experience with the acceptance of Intel BX chipset for Pentium lineup when there was competition from AMD and Cyrix for overclocked 486 like systems about 5-6 years ago and the first generation of video enabled 810/815 chipsets from Intel in 1999-2001. I will repeat Intrel cut overall margins by about 20% on this combined soluton. It drops the cost of motherboards by 10% from previous solutions plus they added the video card for basically for free. Please tell me where Cirrus Logic, Trident, Video logic, S3, 3DFX, Oak Technology, Hercules and Paradise are today in the video chipset business. You fail to understand how easy it would be for NVDA lead engineers to walk away and start a new upstart if they got a good new idea and times at NVDA got tough. If they are so fabless, why couldn't they turn off inventory at the source. Could it be customer, MSFT? is turning product away at the doorstep of XBOX assembly sites in Asia. I think I read recently that MSFT is moving XBOX assembly from well known contract assemblers to lowest cost Asian shops.