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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (79279)	6/14/2002 7:16:49 PM
From: Paul A	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Welp- Ok.. I really didnt want to get into this because IM not out to defend Nvidia by any means.. but one thing I see people throw around is how pc sales are dropping off the cliff, and thus Nvidias business surely will suffer.. Nothing can be further from the truth.. The cost of the average pc is actually less then the cost of the TI4400/4600 graphics cards.. Analysts never make a distinction between gamers and the rest of the world and thats a huge mistake.. Point being that unless someone can convince me that gamers, or better yet- Software sales are dropping I dont think pc-sales matter 1 bit to Nvidia. The average gamer throws down $3-400 when Nvidia updates/upgrades the product line each 6 months.. You can practically bank on the average gamer upgrading his/her video card the moment its available.. There is not a single product I know of in this sector that is in more of a sweet spot.. as for the x-box? Margins sucked, and the quadro product line will more than replace what is not happening with the x-box.. The margins on the Quadro series of cards is astounding. Average selling price of around $800 will also be quite a boost to Nvidias rev.. Its a Friday- IM just rambling.. Not looking to really spend alot of time defending an over priced stock like NVDA which I probably will short next week if it adds a few points from current level.. but knowing this industry very well- it amazes me that whenever an analyst downgrades/comments on the company- they use examples like 'pc sales are plunging' or 'intel this or that', and I just feel these 2 arguements are entirely irrelevant.. As for my Harley Davidson example.. Heh- another stock I never long and always short.. but even the staunchest opponent of that stock/company cant argue that the story is incredible.. Overpriced, loud, ugly bikes that constantly leak oil and break down (every harley owner keeps a tool box in the pouch) but up till recently- every attempt to steal a piece of the pie has failed.. Something to be said for name recognition : )